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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
22 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Breaks Key Support
*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20
*RES 1: $0.7879 - Hourly resistance Feb 21
*PRICE: $0.7812 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7775 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14
*COMMENTARY: The break of the $0.7867 support sees initial focus back on
$0.7229-0.7812 where 100 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel base are noted. Below
$0.7729 remains needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows.
Bulls now need a close above $0.7941 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989
to return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.
KIWI TECHS: Remains Offered
*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7385 - Hourly resistance Feb 21
*PRICE: $0.7323 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7259 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: $0.7189 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7167 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 & 7mth highs is currently flirting
with the 21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an
easing of bullish pressure and below the daily bull channel base now to shift
focus back to $0.7130-90 where 55 ($0.7189) & 200 ($0.7167) DMAs are situated.
Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7438 to target 2017 highs ($0.7558).
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While NZ$1.0780 Caps
*RES 4: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14
*RES 3: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14
*RES 2: NZ$1.0724 - 100-WMA
*RES 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Feb 16 now resistance
*PRICE: NZ$1.0667 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0396 - Monthly Low July 7
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the pair remaining capped ahead of
NZ$1.0780-1.0808 and the break of NZ$1.0700 that now sees focus on NZ$1.0458-91
where the LT rising TL is located. Layers of resistance are following the pair
lower with bulls now needing a close above NZ$1.0780 to gain breathing room and
target a correction back to NZ$1.0840-50 where 21 & 200-DMAs are situated.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y84.89
*RES 4: Y86.61 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7
*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13
*RES 1: Y84.89 - High Feb 14
*PRICE: Y84.33 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y84.16 - Hourly support Feb 19
*SUP 2: Y83.85 - Hourly support Feb 14
*SUP 3: Y83.64 - 100-WMA
*SUP 4: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows saw pressure back on Y84.89. Bears take
comfort in the Y84.89 level capping with bulls needing a close above Y84.89 to
gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus back to Y86.61-87.50 where
key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on Y81.50 Apr 2017 monthly lows
while Y84.89 caps with a close below the 100-WMA to add to bearish confidence.
O/S studies remain a concern for bears.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA
*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11
*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016
*RES 2: A$1.5874 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14
*PRICE: A$1.5725 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5667 - Hourly support Feb 21
*SUP 2: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13
*SUP 3: A$1.5582 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has defined Feb so far with fresh
2018 & 2yr highs last week suffering the same fate. Daily studies correcting
from O/B and the weekly Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need
a close below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to A$1.5461-1.5546 where the
55-DMA is situated. Overall below the 100-DMA (A$1.5383) targets 2018 lows
(A$1.5152) and the 200-DMA (A$1.5140).
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18
*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8
*RES 1: 90.124 - High Feb 14
*PRICE: 89.885 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support
*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (89.587) eased bearish pressure with
above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to
94.219-95.149. Initial support is noted at 89.442 with bears needing a close
below to signal a false break of the 55-DMA and return focus to 87.202-627 where
the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are situated. Weekly
studies are currently correcting from O/S.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2273
*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1.2325 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2301 Low Feb 21
*SUP 2: $1.2273 Low Feb 14
*SUP 3: $1.2205 Low Feb 9
*SUP 4: $1.2167 Low Jan 17
*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel
top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees immediate focus on the break of $1.2273
needed to confirm a break of the daily bull channel base. Overall focus is on
the break of $1.2167 to hint at a move back to $1.1915 and below $1.2089 to
confirm. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to ease bearish pressure and retain
focus on the weekly bear channel top.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above Y108.42
*RES 4: Y109.78 High Feb 8
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance
*RES 2: Y108.38 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*PRICE: Y107.65 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.30 Hourly support Feb 21
*SUP 2: Y107.01 Hourly support Feb 20
*SUP 3: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19
*SUP 4: Y106.10 Low Feb 19
*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance supporting on fresh 2018
lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move to
Y99.08-101.15. Bulls now need a close above Y108.42 to hint at a correction back
to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily studies and
Bollinger base (Y106.16) remain concerns for bears who now need a close below
Y107.01 to retain initial focus on Y105.50.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Shift Focus To 2018 High
*RES 4: Y134.42 55-DMA
*RES 3: Y134.22 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13
*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance
*PRICE: Y132.63 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.26 Hourly support Feb 21
*SUP 2: Y131.88 Low Feb 19
*SUP 3: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16
*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 200-DMA is gathering momentum with
layers of resistance Y133.78-134.42 seen as key. Bulls continue to look for a
close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and confirm a shift in overall focus
to tests of 2018 highs (Y137.50). Correcting O/S studies are supporting the
bullish case. Bears now need a close below Y132.26 to gain breathing room and to
reconfirm focus on Y130.50-131.51 with the 200-DMA noted at Y131.14.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1351.3
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1338.2 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1327.3 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14
*SUP 2: $1311.9 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high
resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus on
$1298.1-1311.9 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below
the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the
200-DMA ($1285.4) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus
to $1367.3-1374.9.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) $60.57 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5
*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6
*RES 2: $62.72 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance
*PRICE: $61.22 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $60.77 - Low Feb 16
*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support
*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls who continue
to look for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs ($66.65). Bears
continue to look for a close below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the
$57.88 support to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($58.34) & target the 200-DMA
($53.70). Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to add support to their case.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.