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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
2 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bollinger Band Base Limits Follow Through
*RES 4: $0.7868 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7819 - High Feb 28
*RES 2: $0.7785 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7773 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7759 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but
follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7225).
Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls now look for
a close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish
pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a
close below $0.7694 to add weight to their case.
KIWI TECHS: Above $0.7272 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: $0.7385 - High Feb 21
*RES 3: $0.7345 - High Feb 26
*RES 2: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26
*RES 1: $0.7272 - Low Feb 23 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7252 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7174 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7088 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7043 - High Dec 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: A potential bullish key day reversal has emerged after the bounce
from ahead of the 200-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7272 to
gain breathing room and above $0.7385 to target $0.7438-0.7558 where 2018 & 2017
highs are situated. Bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a move
back to $0.6952 and then $0.6779 2017 lows. The Bollinger base is noted at
$0.7181 and is the key concern for bears.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Overall Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While MAs Cap
*RES 4: NZ$1.0887 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0848 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0830 - 55-WMA
*RES 1: NZ$1.0747 - Low Feb 27 now resistance
*PRICE: NZ$1.0700 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low
*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs has resulted
in an aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears look for
a close below this level to add weight to the case for a test of NZ$1.0458-91
where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above
NZ$1.0747 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a move
targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Remain Focused On 2017 Low
*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 14
*RES 3: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance
*RES 2: Y83.80 - High Feb 28
*RES 1: Y83.26 - Low Feb 23 now resistance
*PRICE: Y82.51 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y82.06 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: Y81.76 - Lows May 18 & June 6 2017
*SUP 3: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19
*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in continued fresh 2018 & 8mth lows that add
weight to the case for a test of Y81.47 2017 lows that have been bearish focus
for the past couple of weeks. A close below 2017 lows potentially targets
Y76.80. Bulls still need a close above Y83.26 to gain breathing room and above
Y84.89 to target a correction back to key DMAs clustered Y86.57-67. O/S daily
studies remain the key concern for bears.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Narrowing Bolli Bands Hint At Breakout
*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11
*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016
*RES 2: A$1.5911 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14
*PRICE: A$1.5796 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20
*SUP 3: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2
*SUP 4: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25
*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a A$1.5598-1.5816 range continues with
follow through previously lacking in both direction. Bears need a close below
A$1.5598 to shift focus back to A$1.5480-95 where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls
continue to look for a close above 2018 highs to reconfirm a bullish bias and
target A$1.5968-1.6250 where 2016 highs are located. Narrowing Bollinger bands
increase the likelihood of a breakout.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA
*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9
*RES 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance
*RES 1: 90.903 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: 90.306 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support
*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance
leaves a bearish key day reversal setup in place with bears continuing to look
for a close below 90.080 to shift initial focus to 89.442. A close below this
level then sees immediate focus back to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and
the Bollinger top (90.857) remain concerns for bulls who now need a close above
91.011 to initially pressure 91.751.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hinting At Correction To $1.2335-1.2435
*RES 4: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 3: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*RES 2: $1.2335 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.2272 Low Feb 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2264 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17
*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support
*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2181) is
a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at
$1.2159. The $1.2092 support remains key. Bears need a close below to end
bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-90 where the 100-DMA is located. The
bounce hints at a correction back to $1.2335-1.2435 with a close above needed to
return initial focus to 2018 highs.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance
*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 2: Y107.81 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y107.19 High Mar 1
*PRICE: Y106.20 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support
*SUP 2: Y105.32 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016
*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 has left the pair looking
heavy and retains immediate bearish focus on a retest of 2018 lows. A close
below Y105.50 remains needed to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Resistance
layers are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y108.42 to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a correction to Y110.47 with above
Y109.78 to confirm. Daily studies are well placed for fresh losses.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA
*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance
*RES 2: Y131.45 Hourly support Feb 28a now resistance
*RES 1: Y131.31 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y130.22 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.61 200-WMA
*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6
*SUP 3: Y128.47 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with
overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs
which may support along the way. The Bollinger base is noted at Y129.24 and
remains unchallenged indicating the move isn't getting ahead of itself. Bulls
now need a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to
target a correction back to Y132.99-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Aggressive Bounce Ahead Of 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26
*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance
*PRICE: $1319.5 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 2: $1300.0 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: $1286.9 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 now support
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger
base ($1307.8) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction
from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing
room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs
are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to
$1235.9 Dec lows.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26
*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 2: $62.13 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1
*PRICE: $61.45 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $60.18 - Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: $59.11 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: $58.72 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through Thursday with
bulls now needing a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above
$64.97 to return initial focus to $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While
the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the
100-DMA and daily bull channel base are situated. Correcting O/B studies remain
a concern for bulls.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.