MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: 21-DMA & $0.7910 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7885 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7876 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7839 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7771 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA largely supported last week with the close above the

21-DMA Friday ensuring focus remains on the $0.7885-0.7910 resistance to start

the new week. Bulls need a close above $0.7910 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

and above $0.7989 to shift overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs

are situated. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

and below the 100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     KIWI TECHS: Lacking Traction Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $0.7323 - High Mar 12

*PRICE: $0.7296 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7243 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 2: $0.7180 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7100 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($0.7296) remains a stumbling block with the failure to

gain traction above a concern for bulls. The $0.7243 support is key this week

with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus back to the 200-DMA.

Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a move back to Dec lows with

below $0.7042 needed to confirm. Bulls now need a close above $0.7323 to confirm

focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus Shifts To 200-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0857 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0835 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0815 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: NZ$1.0796 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0738 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above NZ$1.0776 that eases bearish

pressure with focus on the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to hint

at a move back to NZ$1.0943-74 where the bear channel top off 2017 highs and the

100-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA is initial support with bears needing a close

below to signal a false break of NZ$1.0776 and return immediate focus to 2018

lows and then NZ$1.0458-91 where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below Y83.32

*RES 4: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 1: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.77 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.32 - High Mar 6

*SUP 2: Y82.50 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 3: Y82.03 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through last week leaving a double

daily bottom in place at Y81.47. Bulls have capitalised with the close above

resistance levels shifting focus to the close above Y84.20 needed to shift focus

back to Y85.59. Bears now need a close below Y83.32 to ease renewed bullish

pressure. Daily studies remain well placed for gains before O/B is an issue.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5697-1.5824 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: A$1.5853 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*RES 3: A$1.5824 - High Mar 9

*RES 2: A$1.5778 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5664 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 2: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: A$1.5530 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5509 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has again taken its toll with a

sell-off and close below the 21-DMA that saw focus return to A$1.5478-1.5598

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are situated. Below

the 100-DMA hints at a move back to A$1.5152-1.5256. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above A$1.5824 to shift

initial focus back to 2018 highs (A$1.5976).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 89.407 To Target 2018 Lows

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.449 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 1: 90.187 - High Mar 12

*PRICE: 89.914 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.798 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on the break below 89.442 last week

resulted in rally that sees focus back on 90.420-91.011 where the 55-DMA is

located. In saying that, hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA is less than ideal and

sees immediate pressure back on the 21-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close

below 89.407 this week to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 88.253 2018

lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2364-1.2446 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2639 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 1: $1.2364 Alternating support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.2335 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2247 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs. The closes below the 21-DMA saw focus return to the

$1.2092-1.2153 support region. Resistance layers left in the wake add to bearish

confidence. Bulls need a close above $1.2364 to gain breathing room and above

$1.2446 to reconfirm focus on $1.2555-1.2639 where 2018 highs and the LT bear

channel top are situated.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.19 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.73 Hourly resistance Mar 12

*PRICE: Y106.40 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation and a lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows is less

than ideal for bears who are currently focused on Y98.95-101.15. In saying that,

resistance layers remain with bulls still needing a close above Y107.19 to ease

bearish pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to

Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.22 to add weight to their case for a test of Y98.95-101.15.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y133.41 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.18 High Feb 27

*RES 1: Y131.70 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.24 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 2: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.92 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA and the 21-DMA

capping resulted in a sell-off and sees immediate focus on Y129.33-53 where 2018

lows and the 200-WMA are noted. Bears look for a close below Y129.33 to

initially pressure the 55-WMA and reconfirm overall focus on Y125.80-127.54.

Bulls still need a close above Y132.18 to ease bearish pressure and shift

initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 (Y133.83) & 100-DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, Bounces From Key Support Again

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1329.5 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1322.9 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1302.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in bounces from $1312.9 that see pressure back

on the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus on

$1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Bears need a close below $1312.9 to

confirm a return in focus to $1288.9-1302.5 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Daily studies are well placed for gains.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $59.18 Support Key This Week 

*RES 4: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 2: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 1: $61.73 - Hourly resistance Mar 12

*PRICE: $61.32 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.42 - Hourly resistance Mar 9a now support 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.25 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy last week the $59.18-91 support region where

the 100-DMA and bull channel base ($59.39) are located confirmed significance

with a rally that provided bulls breathing room and hints at a test of

$63.05-64.07 this week. Overall a close above $64.07 remains needed to return

focus to $66.02-68.21. Bears need a close below $59.18 to hint at a move back to

$53.30-55.40 with below $57.18 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]