MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Target $0.7500-80 While 200-DMA Caps

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7805 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7735 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7706 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7679 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

pair remaining capped around DMAs $0.7776-0.7805. Bulls now look for a close

above the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs

and 55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62. While the

200-DMA caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now look for a close below

$0.7669 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base remains the key concern.

     KIWI TECHS: Key WMAs Supporting, Key DMAs Capping

*RES 4: $0.7324 - Falling TL off 2018 high 

*RES 3: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7282 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7265 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7219 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7191 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21

*SUP 3: $0.7137 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: $0.7122 - 21-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing following the emergence of support ahead of key

WMAs $0.7122-37 the pair has remained capped ahead of the 21 & 55-DMAs. Bulls

need a close above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus back to $0.7315-54 where

the TL off 2018 highs is noted. The $0.7122-37 support region remains key with

bears needing a close below to hint at a move back to 2017 lows with below

$0.7042 to confirm.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Dominate While 55-WMA Caps

*RES 4: NZ$1.0867 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0830 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12

*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0667 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0654 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0631 - 2018 Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0581 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 21-DMA

(NZ$1.0723) following the bounce from 2018 lows with the pair looking heavy once

again. Bears currently focus on NZ$1.0581-1.0631 where the bear channel base is

noted with a close below needed to confirm focus on the LT rising TL off 2015

lows coming in around NZ$1.0463. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to gain

breathing room.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Resistance Layers Building

*RES 4: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.22 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y81.72 - Hourly resistance Mar 22

*PRICE: Y81.21 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.98 - 2018 Low Mar 22

*SUP 2: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 3: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*SUP 4: Y75.95 - Monthly Low Sept 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows following the failure to break above Y82.70

leave the pair looking heavy with bears now looking for a close below Y80.24 to

target Y75.95-76.78. The Bollinger base (Y81.27) remains the key concern for

bears. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with

bulls continuing to look for a close above Y82.70 to hint at a move back to

Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Target A$1.6250 While 21-DMA Supports

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.6069 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: A$1.6040 - 2018 High Mar 20

*RES 1: A$1.6005 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: A$1.5973 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 2: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5801 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip back towards the

21-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back

to A$1.5495-1.5619 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows

are found. While the 21-DMA supports bulls focus on the A$1.6250 2016 high with

a close above A$1.6040 to add support to their case. The Bollinger top

(A$1.6003) continues to limit follow through and is the key concern.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Follow Through Remains Absent

*RES 4: 90.536 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 2: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 1: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.807 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.434 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 89.396 - Low Mar 22

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The DXY continues to bounce back and forth between Bollinger bands

with follow through lacking on breaks of key support and resistance levels.

Bulls now need a close above 90.445 to shift initial focus to 91.011 whereas

bears now need a close below 89.396 to shift overall focus back to 2018 lows

(88.253). In saying that, initial resistance is noted at 90.011 with bulls

needing a close above to ease bearish pressure an reconfirm sideways trading.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1.2420 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: $1.2412 High Mar 14

*RES 2: $1.2388 High Mar 22

*RES 1: $1.2338 Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2316 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $1.2174 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the falling TL ($1.2361) off 2018 highs has

been lacking with bears taking comfort in the rejection ahead of $1.2412-46

where the Bollinger top is noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to confirm

focus on $1.2555-2627 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is found.

bears continue to look for a close below $1.2240 to confirm focus on

$1.2081-1.2174 with the 100-DMA at $1.2081.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y105.22 To Confirm Focus On Y99.08-101.15

*RES 4: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y107.18 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21

*PRICE: Y105.38 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08 2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.75-107.29 has taken its toll with the pair

heading back towards 2018 lows. The Bollinger base (Y105.55) remains the key

concern for bears who look for a close below 2018 lows to reconfirm overall

focus on Y99.08-101.15. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls continue

to look for a close above Y106.75 to ease bearish pressure and above Y107.29 to

shift initial focus to Y108.03-42 with the 55-DMA at Y108.33.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.06-48 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 3: Y131.84 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.15 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: Y130.50 Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.76 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.48 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: Y129.06 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top off 2018 highs

Tuesday leaves the pair looking heavy with focus back on the Y129.06-48 support 

where 55 & 200-WMAs and the 2018 low are situated. Bears need a close below the

55-WMA to target Y125.80-127.54. The Bollinger base (Y129.80) is the key concern

having limited follow through. Bulls now need a close above Y130.50 to gain

breathing room and above the 200-DMA to target Y132.44-133.24.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1318.3

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1336.3 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1329.1 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1323.0 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1306.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1340.7-1351.3. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls.

Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears now needing a close

below $1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1306.2 where the 100-DMA is

located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bears Need Close Below $63.99 

*RES 4: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $65.74 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: $65.32 - Hourly resistance Mar 22

*PRICE: $64.26 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 2: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 

*SUP 4: $61.45 - Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble $66.02-66 has left the contract looking a

little heavy with focus back on the $63.99 support today. Bears continue to look

for a close below this level to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus

back to $61.45-62.52 where 21 ($62.18) & 55 ($62.41) DMAs are situated. While

$63.99 supports bulls remain focused on $66.02-66 with a close above needed to

target $69.54-73.25 last seen in early 2014. 

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]