MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Target $0.7500-80 While 200-DMA Caps

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7806 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7735 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7704 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7656 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

pair remaining capped around DMAs $0.7777-0.7806. Bulls look for a close above

the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and

55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62. While the 200-DMA

caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now look for a close below $0.7669

to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base remains the key concern.

     KIWI TECHS: Key WMAs Supporting, Key DMAs Capping

*RES 4: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 3: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance, Falling TL 

*RES 2: $0.7285 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7265 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7229 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7191 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21

*SUP 3: $0.7143 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: $0.7138 - 21-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing following the emergence of support ahead of key

WMAs $0.7126-43 the pair has remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA. Bulls need a

close above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus back to $0.7315-54 where the TL

off 2018 highs is noted. The $0.7126-37 support region remains key with bears

needing a close below to hint at a move back to 2017 lows with below $0.7042 to

confirm.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Dominate While 55-WMA Caps

*RES 4: NZ$1.0868 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0830 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12

*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0631 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0611 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0578 - Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 21-DMA

(NZ$1.0721) following the bounce from 2018 lows with the pair looking heavy once

again. Bears currently focus on NZ$1.0578-1.0611 where the bear channel base is

noted with a close below needed to confirm focus on the LT rising TL off 2015

lows coming in around NZ$1.0465. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to gain

breathing room.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus On Y75.95-76.78

*RES 4: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y82.22 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y81.72 - Hourly resistance Mar 22 

*RES 1: Y81.46 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: Y80.64 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 2: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 3: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*SUP 4: Y75.95 - Monthly Low Sept 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows following the failure to break above Y82.70

leave the pair looking heavy with bears now looking for a close below Y80.24 to

target Y75.95-76.78. The Bollinger base (Y80.53) remains the key concern for

bears. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with

bulls continuing to look for a close above Y82.70 to hint at a move back to

Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Target A$1.6250 While 21-DMA Supports

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.6069 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: A$1.6055 - 2018 High Mar 23

*RES 1: A$1.6005 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: A$1.6027 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5940 - Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5834 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip back towards the

21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below A$1.5795 to shift focus back to

A$1.5495-1.5619 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are

found. While the 21-DMA supports bulls focus on the A$1.6250 2016 high with a

close above A$1.6055 to add support to their case. The Bollinger top (A$1.6068)

continues to limit follow through and is the key concern.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Follow Through Remains Absent

*RES 4: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 3: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 2: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.737 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: 89.484 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.396 - Low Mar 22

*SUP 2: 89.394 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The DXY continues to bounce back and forth between Bollinger bands

with follow through lacking on breaks of key support and resistance levels.

Bulls need a close above 90.445 to shift initial focus to 91.011 whereas bears

now need a close below 89.396 to shift overall focus back to 2018 lows (88.253).

Initial resistance is noted at 89.737 but bulls need a close above 89.737 to

ease bearish pressure and reconfirm sideways trading.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2424 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $1.2412 High Mar 14

*RES 1: $1.2388 High Mar 22

*PRICE: $1.2343 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1.2180 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the falling TL ($1.2361) off 2018 highs has

been lacking with bears taking comfort in the rejection ahead of $1.2412-46

where the Bollinger top is noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to confirm

focus on $1.2555-2625 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is found.

Bears continue to look for a close below $1.2240 to confirm focus on

$1.2092-1.2180 with the 100-DMA at $1.2095.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Hesitating Ahead of LT Rising TL

*RES 4: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 2: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 1: Y105.22 Previous 2018 Low Mar 2 now resistance

*PRICE: Y104.70 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: Y104.26 LT Rising TL off 2016 low 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.75-107.29 took its toll resulting in fresh

2018 & 18mth lows and hinting at a move targeting 99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows

are noted. Bears now need a close below the LT rising TL off 2016 lows to

confirm. Bulls now look for a close above Y105.22 to gain breathing room. A

close above Y106.09 is needed to return initial focus to Y106.75-107.29. The

Bollinger base (Y104.90) is the key concern.

     EURO-YEN TECHS:

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1318.3-1335.6 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1366.1 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1354.8 - Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high 

*RES 1: $1351.3 - High Feb 19

*PRICE: $1346.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1343.5 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 2: $1335.6 - Hourly support Mar 23a 

*SUP 3: $1323.7 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1351.3-1374.9. The Bollinger top ($1339.9) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1335.6 to gain breathing room and below

$1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1306.9 where the 100-DMA is located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bears Need Close Below $63.99 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 1: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25

*PRICE: $65.74 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $65.02 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 2: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 3: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: Gains dominated pressuring $66.02-66 where 2018 highs are noted.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.02 to target $69.54-73.25 last seen

in early 2014. The Bollinger band top ($65.35) is the key concern for bulls. The

$63.99 support remains key this week. Bears look for a close below this level to

ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to $61.45-62.52 where 21

($62.34) & 55 ($62.50) DMAs are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]