MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7875 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $0.7807 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: $0.7744 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7711 - Hourly support Mar 26 

*SUP 2: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7661 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

pair remaining capped around DMAs $0.7777-0.7806. Bulls look for a close above

the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and

55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62. While the 200-DMA

caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now look for a close below $0.7669

to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base remains the key concern.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $0.7315

*RES 4: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 2: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7310 - Falling daily TL off Feb high

*PRICE: $0.7299 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7276 - Hourly support Mar 26

*SUP 2: $0.7229 - Low Mar 26

*SUP 3: $0.7200 - Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in Monday's aggressive rally following last

week's dip back towards key WMAs with bulls now looking for a close above

$0.7315 to confirm a break of the falling daily TL off Feb highs. Daily studies

are well placed for gains. As layers of support begin to accumulate bears now

look for a close below $0.7276 to gain breathing room and below $0.7200 to shift

focus back to $0.7126-51 where WMAs and the 100-DMA are located.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Dominate While 55-WMA Caps

*RES 4: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12

*RES 3: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*RES 2: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 1: NZ$1.0652 - Low Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0611 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0582 - 2018 Low Mar 26

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0575 - Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0464 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 21-DMA

(NZ$1.0715) following the bounce from 2018 lows with the pair looking heavy once

again. Bears currently focus on NZ$1.0464-1.0575 where the bear channel base and

LT rising TL off 2015 lows coming in around NZ$1.0464 are located. Bulls now

need a close above the 55-WMA (NZ$1.0825) to hint at a shift higher in focus

initially targeting NZ$1.1073 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y82.70

*RES 4: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.22 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y81.73 - Hourly resistance Mar 26

*PRICE: Y81.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.90 - Hourly support Mar 26

*SUP 2: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 3: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 4: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows were seen Friday with bulls taking comfort

in the bounce Monday. In saying that, bulls continue to look for a close above

Y82.70 to hint at a move back to Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. Daily

studies are now correcting from O/S levels. While Y82.70 caps bears focus on the

break of Y80.24 needed to target Y75.95-76.78. The Bollinger base (Y80.73)

remains the key concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Target A$1.6250 While A$1.5940 Supports

*RES 4: A$1.6323 - 2015 High Aug 24

*RES 3: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 2: A$1.6204 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: A$1.6131 - 2018 High Mar 26

*PRICE: A$1.6062 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5940 - Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5834 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs have lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger band top (A$1.6076) as bulls currently focus on A$1.6250-1.6323 where

2016 & 2015 highs are located. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal.

In saying that, layers of support remain. Bears need a close below A$1.5940 to

ease bullish pressure and below A$1.5795 to shift focus back to A$1.5495-1.5634

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are found.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Returns To 2018 Low

*RES 4: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 3: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 89.737 - High Mar 23 

*RES 1: 89.327 - Hourly resistance Mar 26

*PRICE: 89.055 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 2: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 3: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading has come to an end with a break lower to start the

week that sees immediate pressure on 88.960 and overall focus back on tests of

2018 lows. The Bollinger base (89.235) is the key concern for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above 89.327 to gain

breathing room and above 90.011 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to

90.445.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Target $1.2555-1.2625

*RES 4: $1.2813 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: $1.2770 High Oct 29 2014

*RES 2: $1.2604 Low Oct 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*PRICE: $1.2455 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2417 Hourly resistance Mar 26 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2340 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: $1.2240 Low Mar 20

*COMMENTARY: An aggressive rally to start the new week sees bulls in control

with focus now shifting to $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear channel top off 2008

highs is located. The Bollinger top ($1.2444) is the key concern for bulls with

daily studies well placed. Initial support is noted at $1.2417 but bears now

look for a close below $1.2340 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.2240 to

initially pressure $1.2092-1.2186.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Ahead of LT Rising TL

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance, 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21

*PRICE: Y105.39 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 2: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: Y104.26 LT Rising TL off 2016 low 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support having emerged ahead of the LT rising

TL off 2016 lows with support layers tentatively building. Initial focus is now

on Y106.09 with bulls needing a close above to return focus to Y106.75-107.29.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need a close

below the LT rising TL to confirm focus on Y99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows are

noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Shifts To Key DMAs

*RES 4: Y133.20 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.01 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 1: Y131.90 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.22 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.94 Hourly resistance Mar 26 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.52 Hourly resistance Mar 26a now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.44 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with key WMAs bears failed to gain traction below

the 55 (Y129.21) & 200 (Y129.44) WMAs with the bounce to start the new week

seeing focus back on the Y131.90-133.20 region where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

noted. Daily studies correcting from O/S are perfectly placed for a leg higher.

Bears now look for a close below Y129.97 to return pressure to Y128.94-129.44

where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1343.5

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1366.1 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 1: $1355.9 - High Mar 26

*PRICE: $1353.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1350.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 26 now support 

*SUP 2: $1343.5 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 3: $1335.6 - Hourly support Mar 23a 

*SUP 4: $1324.6 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1361.7-1374.9. The Bollinger top ($1345.5) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1343.5 to gain breathing room and below

$1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1307.7 where the 100-DMA is located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Increased Correction Risk 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.55 - High Mar 26 

*RES 1: $65.88 - Hourly resistance Mar 26

*PRICE: $65.49 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $65.02 - Hourly support Mar 23 

*SUP 2: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 3: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2018 highs Monday is less than ideal for

bulls when combined with daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct as

well as the Bollinger top ($65.71) limiting follow through. Bears now look for a

close below $63.99 to shift initial focus back to $61.45-62.52 where 21 ($62.44)

& 55 ($62.57) DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.66

to target $69.54-73.25 last seen in early 2014.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]