MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7807 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7718 - Hourly resistance Mar 27

*PRICE: $0.7676 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7650 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.7784-0.7807 where key DMAs are situated

continues to hamper recovery efforts with pressure having returned to 2018 lows.

Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the

falling TL off 2018 highs and 55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to

$0.8135-62. While the 200-DMA caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now

look for a close below $0.7669 to add weight to their case.

     KIWI TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 2: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7305 - Falling daily TL off Feb high

*PRICE: $0.7262 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7229 - Low Mar 26

*SUP 2: $0.7200 - Low Mar 23

*SUP 3: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21

*SUP 4: $0.7144 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in Monday's aggressive rally following last

week's dip back towards key WMAs with bulls now looking for a close above

$0.7315 to confirm a break of the falling daily TL off Feb highs. Daily studies

are well placed for gains. Bears now look for a close below $0.7276 to gain

breathing room and below $0.7229 to shift focus back to $0.7126-51 where WMAs

and the 100-DMA are located.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Dominate While 55-WMA Caps

*RES 4: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*RES 3: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 2: NZ$1.0652 - Low Mar 22 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0627 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: NZ$1.0568 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0563 - 2018 Low Mar 27

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0464 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 21-DMA

(NZ$1.0715) following the bounce from 2018 lows with the pair looking heavy once

again. Bears currently focus on NZ$1.0394-1.0491 where the bear channel base and

LT rising TL off 2015 lows coming in around NZ$1.0464 are located. Bulls now

need a close above NZ$1.0652 to ease bearish pressure and above the 55-WMA

(NZ$1.0825) to target NZ$1.1073 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y82.70

*RES 4: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y82.22 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y81.90 - High Mar 27 

*RES 1: Y81.34 - Hourly resistance Mar 27

*PRICE: Y81.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 2: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 3: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*SUP 4: Y75.95 - Monthly Low Sept 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows were seen Friday with Bulls failing to

trouble Y82.70 so far. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y82.70 to hint

at a move back to Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. Daily studies are now

correcting from O/S levels. While Y82.70 caps bears focus on the break of Y80.24

needed to target Y75.95-76.78. The Bollinger base (Y80.54) remains the key

concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Target A$1.6250 While A$1.5940 Supports

*RES 4: A$1.6620 - Monthly High Nov 27 2009

*RES 3: A$1.6323 - 2015 High Aug 24

*RES 2: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 1: A$1.6216 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: A$1.6155 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.6047 - Low Mar 27 

*SUP 2: A$1.5940 - Low Mar 23 

*SUP 3: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5858 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs continue with O/B studies and the Bollinger

band top (A$1.6124) key concerns for bulls. Bulls currently focus on

A$1.6250-1.6323 where 2016 & 2015 highs are located. Layers of support

accumulating add support to the bullish case. Bears need a close below A$1.6047

to ease bullish pressure and below A$1.5940 to shift focus back to

A$1.5795-1.5858 where the 21-DMA is situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above 90.011

*RES 4: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 3: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 2: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.737 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: 89.347 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.124 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 now support

*SUP 2: 88.942 - Low Mar 27

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has again been lacking, this time on the break of

88.960 with bulls taking comfort in the bounce. The rally sees bulls gain

breathing room with a close above 90.011 still needed to shift initial focus

back to 90.445 March highs so far. While the 89.737-90.011 resistance region

caps bears remain focused on tests of 2018 lows and look for a close below

88.942 to add weight to their case.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Looking A Little Offered

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2417 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.2395 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2340 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $1.2193 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on Monday's gains is a concern for bulls and

leaves that pair looking a little heavy with a likely close below $1.2417 easing

bullish pressure. Bears now look for a close below $1.2240 to initially pressure

$1.2092-1.2193 where the daily bull channel base is noted. Bulls now look for a

close above $1.2433 to gain breathing room and retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625

where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21

*PRICE: Y105.37 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 2: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: Y104.26 LT Rising TL off 2016 low 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the LT rising TL off 2016 lows is struggling a

little having run into selling pressure ahead of the Y106.09-107.29 resistance

region. Bulls need a close above Y106.09 to return focus to Y106.75-107.29.

Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need a close

below Y105.29 to gain breathing room and below the LT rising.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y132.94 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.93 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.42 Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.75 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.52 Hourly resistance Mar 26a now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.44 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.20 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with key WMAs bears failed to gain traction below

the 55 (Y129.20) & 200 (Y129.44) WMAs with the bounce to start the new week

seeing focus back on the Y131.90-133.20 region where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to shift focus to Y132.44-133.19.

Bears now look for a close below Y129.97 to return pressure to Y128.94-129.44

where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1335.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1366.1 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 1: $1356.7 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: $1344.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1339.8 - Low Mar 27 

*SUP 2: $1335.6 - Hourly support Mar 23a 

*SUP 3: $1325.9 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base

for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1361.7-1374.9. The Bollinger top ($1347.4) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below $1335.6 to gain breathing room and below

$1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1308.3 where the 100-DMA is located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bears Need Close Below $63.99 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.55 - High Mar 26 

*RES 1: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27

*PRICE: $64.64 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 2: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 

*SUP 4: $62.49 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2018 highs is less than ideal for bulls when

combined with daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct as well as the

Bollinger top ($65.85) limiting follow through. Bears now look for a close below

$63.99 to shift initial focus back to $61.45-62.63 where 21 ($62.48) & 55

($62.63) DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.66 to

target $69.54-73.25 last seen in early 2014.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]