MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance Layers

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7813 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7774 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*PRICE: $0.7756 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7707 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $0.7635 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.7774-0.7842 where the falling TL off 2018

highs and key DMA & WMAs are noted is a concern. Narrowing Bolli bands increase

the risk of a break out. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes

and shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus to $0.8135-62. Bears need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7630 to confirm a

break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7324

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7389 - High Apr 12

*PRICE: $0.7372 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7342 - Low Apr 11

*SUP 2: $0.7324 - High Apr 6 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7287 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7241 - Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7241 has resulted in focus having returned to

2018 highs. Overall bulls look for a close above $0.7458 to confirm focus on

$0.7558 2017 highs. The Bollinger top ($0.7383) is the key concern for bulls as

it limits follow through. Bears need a close below $0.7324 to ease bullish

pressure and below $0.7241 to confirm focus back on $0.7130-93 where DMA and

WMAs are found.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus On LT Rising TL

*RES 4: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 3: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.0608 - High Apr 6, 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0561 - High Apr 9

*PRICE: NZ$1.0515 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0483 - 2018 Low Apr 12

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0483 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 9mth lows continue as immediate bearish focus remains on the

LT rising daily TL off 2015 lows with a close needed to target NZ$1.0367 June

lows. Follow through remains lacking courtesy of the Bollinger base. Bulls now

look for a close above NZ$1.0561 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus to NZ$1.0669.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y82.58 & 55-DMA Levels Key

*RES 4: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.57 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.21 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.58 - Highs Apr 6 & 9 now support

*SUP 2: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on Y82.70 took its toll with an aggressive break higher

and bullish close Tuesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA

to add support the case for a move back to Y84.51-85.89 where key DMA and WMAs

are noted. Initial support is found at Y82.58 with bears needing a close below

to ease bullish pressure and below Y81.87 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Pressuring Key Support Region

*RES 4: A$1.6117 - High Mar 29

*RES 3: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 2: A$1.6060 - High Apr 9

*RES 1: A$1.5980 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5891 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 2: A$1.5800 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5619 - Monthly low Mar 12

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in a dip below the daily bull channel base

(A$1.5894) off Jan 29 lows with pressure on the key A$1.5795-1.5856 support

region. Bears need a close below A$1.5795 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and

to shift initial focus to A$1.5540-1.5619 where the LT bull channel base, 21-WMA

and Mar low are noted. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing

room and return initial focus to A$1.6060-1.6117.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 89.970

*RES 4: 90.970 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.784 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.660 - Hourly support Apr 12

*SUP 2: 89.345 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low

*SUP 3: 89.206 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the daily bull

channel base off 2018 lows following the most recent topside failure. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above

90.597 to shift immediate focus to 90.970-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found. The

88.942 support is key with bears needing a close below to confirm traction below

the channel base and to initially target 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2290

*RES 4: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 3: $1.2428 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: $1.2395 High Apr 11

*RES 1: $1.2353 Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2325 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2172 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bear channel top sees the pair

flirting with the 55-DMA ($1.2335) and pressuring initial support. Bears

continue to look for a close below $1.2290 to return focus to $1.2153-1.2209

where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls now need a close above $1.2353 to gain

breathing room and above $1.2477 to confirm a return in focus to $1.2555-1.2611

where the LT bear channel top off 2018 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA & Y107.49 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.32 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Y106.37 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Y106.57-107.49 sideways trading continues as the pair oscillates

around the 55-DMA. Bulls look for a close above Y107.49 to reconfirm focus on

Y108.03-42 with a close above this region to target Y109.29-110.54 where key DMA

and WMAs are situated. Bears still need a close below the 21-DMA to shift

initial focus back to Y105.29 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows. While the

21-DMA supports bulls hold a slight advantage and look for a break higher.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To Focus On 2018 High

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.61 High Apr 10

*PRICE: Y132.30 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.61 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y131.99 lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below Y131.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (Y131.04) and shift initial focus back to Y128.94-129.96.

Bulls now look for a close above Y132.61 to add support to their case an ad

above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to 2018

highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.66) is the key concern for bulls.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Looking Offered Again

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $1353.2 - High Apr 12

*PRICE: $1335.1 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1314.3 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of the 2018 highs has resulted in a sharp

correction lower with immediate pressure back on $1326.9-1330.9. Bears now need

a close below $1326.9 to confirm initial focus on $1314.3-1318.3 where the

100-DMA is noted. Below the 100-DMA is needed to initially target 2018 lows and

then the 200-DMA ($1297.3). Bulls now need a close above $1353.2 to return focus

to $1366.0-1391.8 region where 2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $65.68 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $69.11 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $67.38 - 2018 High Apr 11 (Cont)

*PRICE: $67.02 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $65.94 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: $65.68 - Hourly support Apr 11 

*SUP 3: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 4: $64.35 - Hourly support Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week has resulted in aggressive rallies

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Wednesday and bulls now targeting

$69.11-73.25. Daily studies are perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher but the

Bollinger band top ($67.24) is a concern. Bears now look for a close below

$65.68 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA ($63.92) to shift focus back

to $60.98-61.81 where the 100-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]