MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7326

*RES 4: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 3: $0.7560 - High May 4

*RES 2: $0.7490 - Hourly support May 8 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7470 - Low May 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7450 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7431 - 2018 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows add weight to the bearish case with

immediate focus currently on $0.7326 June lows. Correcting O/S daily studies

remain the key concern for bears as the pair gains traction following the break

of the weekly bull channel base ($0.7613). Layers of resistance build and add

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $0.7490 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7640 to shift initial focus to $0.7701-0.7842 where

55, 100 & 200-DMAs are found.

     KIWI TECHS: Correcting O/S Studies Impacting

*RES 4: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 1: $0.6983 - Low May 2 Now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6970 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6951 - 2018 Low May 8

*SUP 2: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to manage the close above $0.7052 needed to ease

bearish pressure with fresh 2018 & 5mth lows Tuesday adding weight to the case

for a move currently targeting $0.6799-0.6815 where Nov & Dec lows are situated.

Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close

above $0.6983 to gain breathing room and above $0.7052 to hint at a correction

back to $0.7157-0.7198 with the 200-DMA at $0.7157.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0803 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0770 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0772 - 21-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0686 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0662 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to gain

breathing room and below NZ$1.0601 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0440-86 where

bull and bear channel bases & 2018 lows are noted. While the 55-DMA supports

bulls hold the advantage with focus currently on NZ$1.0762-1.0894 where key

DMAs, WMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 3: Y82.58 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y82.53 - High May 1 

*RES 1: Y81.67 - Low May 4 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.30 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 2: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 3: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 4: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in Tuesday's break lower that adds weight to the

immediate case for a test of 2018 lows. Overall bears look for a close below

Y80.24 to shift immediate focus to Y76.78 Nov 2016 monthly lows. O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears. In saying that, bulls now need a close

above Y81.67 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

Y83.94-84.06.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6100 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: A$1.6100 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance, High Apr 30

*RES 1: A$1.5958 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5916 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5830 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5713 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 Low 

*SUP 4: A$1.5705 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far sees the pair flirting

with the bull channel base (A$1.5886) off 2018 lows and focus now on the

A$1.5619-1.5771 support region where the weekly bull channel base, 100-DMA and

21-WMA are noted. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue. Bulls

now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.6056 to

target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: 94.659 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 93.508 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.280 - 2018 High May 8

*PRICE: 93.085 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.952 - Hourly support May 7

*SUP 2: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 3: 91.959 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: After a few days consolidation bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &

5mth highs with the index now flirting with the 55-WMA (93.158). Bulls look for

a close above currently 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA. O/B

studies remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 92.952 to

gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 200-DMA.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressuring 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*RES 1: $1.1897 Hourly resistance May 8

*PRICE: $1.1862 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1827 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows continue with immediate pressure on

$1.1815-28 where the 55-WMA is located. Bears look for a close below $1.1815 to

initially pressure $1.1690-1.1716. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for

bears but at present bears dominate as layers of resistance build. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $1.2053 to confirm an easing of bearish

pressure and to shift initial focus back to $1.2144-1.2294.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.18 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y109.11 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: Y108.64 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.46 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears now look

for a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears

targeting 2018 lows. Bulls still need a close above Y109.54 to gain breathing

room and above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.22-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressuring 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y131.81 21-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 2: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance

*RES 1: Y129.82 Hourly support May 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.45 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 3: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: Y126.02 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus

now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially

target the bear channel base around Y126.02. O/S daily studies are the key

concern for bears as pressure currently weighs on the 200-WMA. Bulls now need a

close above Y130.66 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to

Y131.81-54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1327.9 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 2: $1324.4 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7

*PRICE: $1314.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1292.2 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1277.7 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1305.3) and bears needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction below

and add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low

($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are

found.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Aggressive Bounce From Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $71.71 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $70.84 - 2018 High May 7 

*RES 1: $70.45 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $70.04 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 3: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8 

*SUP 4: $67.63 - Low May 8

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off was short lived and aggressively reversed

maintaining pressure on recent 2018 & 3+yr highs. Follow through has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band top which is a concern with bulls

currently focused on the daily bull channel top. Bears now need a close below

$69.12 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back towards

$66.85-67.63. A close below $66.85 is needed to shift focus to $64.10-65.59.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]