MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7648 Next Topside Hurdle

*RES 4: $0.7690 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7560 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7530 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted lack of follow through on 2018 lows has been

followed up with an aggressive rally and close above $0.7490 that buys breathing

room. A close above $0.7648 is now needed to shift initial focus to

$0.7690-0.7735 where the 55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $0.7472

to confirm a false break and return immediate focus to 2018 lows and then

$0.7326 June lows beneath.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6996

*RES 4: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 1: $0.6996 - High May 9

*PRICE: $0.6969 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6935 - Hourly support May 10

*SUP 2: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off Thursday has lacked follow through having

bounced aggressively from fresh 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from O/S

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6996 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7052 to hint at a correction back to $0.7153-0.7198

with the 200-DMA at $0.7153. While $0.6996 caps bears retain the advantage and

focus on Nov & Dec lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Focused On NZ$1.0826-1.0894

*RES 4: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0880 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0838 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: NZ$1.0826 - High Feb 28

*PRICE: NZ$1.0816 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0806 - 55-WMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0767 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA with the rally Thursday seeing immediate pressure on

NZ$1.0826-94 where the 200-DMA and bear channel top off Oct highs is situated.

Layers of support building adds to bullish confidence with bears now needing a

close below NZ$1.0762 to ease pressure on the channel to and shift focus back to

NZ$1.0655-97 where 55 & 21-DMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y83.15 - High Apr 20

*RES 3: Y82.54 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y82.53 - High May 1 

*RES 1: Y82.47 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y82.38 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 2: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*SUP 3: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above Y82.00 buying breathing room

with a close above the 21-DMA now needed to focus back to Y83.94-84.06. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher. Initial support is noted at

Y82.00 with bears needing a close below to reconfirm focus on Y80.51-81.13 where

2018 lows are situated with a close below Y80.24 needed to shift immediate focus

to Y76.78 Nov 2016 monthly lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5967 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 3

*RES 3: A$1.5947 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5915 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5830 - Low May 7 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5817 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5713 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 Low, 100-DMA

*SUP 3: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far sees the pair gaining

traction below the bull channel base off 2018 lows and focus now on the

A$1.5619-1.5771 support region where the weekly bull channel base, 100-DMA and

21-WMA are noted. Daily studies now at O/S levels and looking to correct are a

concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5969 to confirm breaks of 21

& 55-DMAs and to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 3: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9 

*RES 2: 92.998 - Hourly resistance May 10 

*RES 1: 92.841 - Low May 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.695 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.958 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.322 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Having so far failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (93.152) the

index is looking a little heavy with correcting O/B daily studies seen weighing.

Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure

and shift initial focus to 90.468-91.489 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are found.

Bulls now need a close above 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA

(94.657).

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Increased Correction Risk

*RES 4: $1.2131 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*PRICE: $1.1914 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Thursday's close above $1.1897 buys bulls breathing room and

increases the risk of a correction initially targeting $1.2018-53 where the

200-DMA is located when combined with correcting O/S studies. Above $1.2053 is

needed to shift initial focus back to $1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close

below $1.1897 to see pressure back on 2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is

needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.18 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.41 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: Y108.71 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.53 Low Apr 24, 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Yet another rejection ahead of the 200-DMA and 55-WMA is a concern

for bulls and leaves the pair looking offered. Bears now need a close below

Y108.53 to confirm breaks of 21 & 100-DMAs with focus then shifting to

Y106.57-107.85 where the 55-DMA (Y107.26) is located. Bulls continue to look for

a close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall

focus to tests of 2018 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-WMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y131.66 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.75 High May 10

*PRICE: Y130.36 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support around the 200-WMA when combined with

daily studies looking to correct from very O/S levels. Bears continue to look

for a close below 2018 lows to initially target the bear channel base around

Y125.87. Bulls now look for a close above Y130.75 to gain breathing room and

hint at a correction back to Y131.66-132.54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located

whereas bears need a close below Y129.91 to reconfirm control.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $1327.2 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1325.5 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1321.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.9 - High May 7 now support 

*SUP 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 

*SUP 3: $1305.7 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1

*COMMENTARY: Gold failed to gain traction on dips below the 200-DMA with focus

having returned to $1325.5-1332.6 where key DMAs are located. Bulls continue to

look for a close above $1332.6 to gain traction above key DMAs and to return

focus to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found. Bears now need a close below

$1318.9 to gain breathing room and below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a

test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5).

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.46

*RES 4: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 3: $74.16 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $71.88 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: $71.40 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.46 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off Wed was short lived and aggressively reversed

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs once again with bulls currently focused on

the bull channel tops. Bears now need a close below $70.46 to gain breathing

room and below $69.12 to hint at a correction back towards $66.85-67.63. A close

below $66.85 is needed to shift focus to $64.10-65.59.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]