MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7648 Next Topside Hurdle

*RES 4: $0.7684 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7584 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7543 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7519 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted lack of follow through on 2018 lows was

followed up with a close above $0.7490 that bought bulls breathing room. A close

above $0.7648 remains needed to shift initial focus to $0.7684-0.7735 where the

55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $0.7472 to confirm a false break

and return immediate focus to 2018 lows and then $0.7326 June lows beneath.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6996

*RES 4: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 1: $0.6996 - High May 9

*PRICE: $0.6956 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6935 - Hourly support May 10

*SUP 2: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off Thursday lacked follow through having bounced

aggressively from fresh 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from O/S remain the

key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6996 to gain breathing

room and above $0.7052 to hint at a correction back to $0.7151-0.7198 with the

200-DMA at $0.7151. While $0.6996 caps bears retain the advantage and focus on

Nov & Dec lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Closes Above Key WMAs

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 2: NZ$1.0881 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11

*PRICE: NZ$1.0839 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0805 - 55-WMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0765 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA resulting in weekly closes above the 55 (NZ$1.0805) 21 &

200-WMAs. Bulls now look for a close above NZ$1.0894 to shift immediate focus to

NZ$1.1073 and overall focus to 2017 highs. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0762 to

ease bullish pressure to and shift focus back to NZ$1.0655-97 where 55 & 21-DMAs

are noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y82.00 This Week

*RES 4: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 

*RES 3: Y83.94 - High Apr 19 

*RES 2: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 1: Y82.66 - High May 11

*PRICE: Y82.48 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.24 - Low May 11

*SUP 2: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 3: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above Y82.00 buying breathing room

but now look for a close above Y82.66 to confirm breaks of 21 (Y82.50) & 55

(Y82.44) DMAs and confirm focus on Y83.94-84.06. The Y82.00 support is key this

week with bears needing a close below to reconfirm focus on Y80.51-81.13 where

2018 lows are situated with a close below Y80.24 needed to shift immediate focus

to Y76.78 Nov 2016 monthly lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5967 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 3

*RES 3: A$1.5945 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5918 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5850 - High May 11

*PRICE: A$1.5830 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5713 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 Low, 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far sees the pair gaining

traction below the bull channel base off 2018 lows and focus now on the

A$1.5619-1.5771 support region where the weekly bull channel base, 100-DMA and

21-WMA are noted. Daily studies now at O/S levels and looking to correct are a

concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5967 to confirm breaks of 21

& 55-DMAs and to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 3: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9 

*RES 2: 92.998 - Hourly resistance May 10 

*RES 1: 92.841 - Low May 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.554 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.951 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.583 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Having so far failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (93.030) the

index is looking a little heavy with correcting O/B daily studies seen weighing.

Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure

and shift initial focus to 90.550-91.4583 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are found.

Bulls now need a close above 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA

(94.716).

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2094 21-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.2019 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1944 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Thursday's close above $1.1897 bought bulls breathing room and

increases the risk of a correction initially targeting $1.2019-53 where the

200-DMA is located when combined with correcting O/S studies. Above $1.2053 is

needed to shift initial focus back to $1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close

below $1.1871 to see pressure back on 2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is

needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.44 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.17 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.39 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.49 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Yet another rejection ahead of the 200-DMA and 55-WMA was a concern

for bulls last week and leaves the pair looking offered. Bears now need a close

below the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to Y106.57-107.85

where the 55-DMA (Y107.30) is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above

the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall focus to tests of

2018 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y129.91

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y131.59 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.93 High May 4

*PRICE: Y130.51 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support around the 200-WMA last week when

combined with daily studies correcting from very O/S levels. The pair has worked

its way back towards Y130.93-131.59 where 55 & 21-DMAs are noted. Overall bulls

need a close above the 100-DMA (Y132.70) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. Bears

now need a close below Y129.91 to ease bullish pressure and below 2018 lows to

initially target the bear channel base around Y125.80.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Still Need Close Above $1332.6

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $1327.0 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1326.0 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1317.7 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1310.5 - Low May 10 

*SUP 2: $1306.0 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 4: $1292.2 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back to the 200-DMA last week resulted in a

test of key DMAs only to be rejected Friday and looking gently offered. Bears

continue to look for a close below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a test

of the 200-WMA ($1234.5). The 55-DMA capped Friday with bulls still needing a

close above $1332.6 to gain traction above key DMAs and to return focus to

$1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.45

*RES 4: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 3: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $71.97 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: $70.70 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.45 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off Wed was short lived and aggressively reversed

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs once again with bulls currently focused on

the bull channel tops. Bears now need a close below $70.45 to gain breathing

room and below $69.12 to hint at a correction back towards $66.85-67.63. A close

below $66.85 is needed to shift focus to $64.10-65.59 with the 55-DMA at $65.14.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]