MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7679 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7571 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7523 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7519 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted lack of follow through on 2018 lows was

followed up with a close above $0.7490 that bought bulls breathing room. A close

above $0.7648 remains needed to shift initial focus to $0.7679-0.7735 where the

55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $0.7519 to gain breathing room

and below $0.7472 to return immediate focus to 2018 lows and then $0.7326 June

lows beneath.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Remain Focused On Nov & Dec Lows

*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 1: $0.6952 - Low May 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6911 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: The pair was rejected ahead of the key $0.6996 resistance to start

the new week leaving the pair looking heavy and immediate pressure on 2018 lows.

Bears need a close below 2018 lows to reconfirm focus on tests of Nov & Dec

lows. Resistance layers are again accumulating and adding to bearish confidence.

Bulls now need a close above $0.6996 to gain breathing room and above $0.7052 to

hint at a correction back to $0.7149-0.7198 with the 200-DMA at $0.7149.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Targeting 2018 High

*RES 4: NZ$1.1290 - 2017 High Oct 24

*RES 3: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 1: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0887 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0805 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0765 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA resulting in weekly closes above the 55 (NZ$1.0805) 21 &

200-WMAs. Monday's marginal close above the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0881) adds support to

the case for a test of 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0843 to

gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0762 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0655-1.0709

where 55 & 21-DMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y82.00 This Week

*RES 4: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 

*RES 3: Y83.94 - High Apr 19 

*RES 2: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 1: Y82.78 - High May 14

*PRICE: Y82.52 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.24 - Low May 11

*SUP 2: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 3: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above Y82.00 buying breathing room

but now look for a close above Y82.78 to confirm breaks of 21 (Y82.46) & 55

(Y82.42) DMAs and confirm focus on Y83.94-84.06. The Y82.00 support is key this

week with bears needing a close below to reconfirm focus on Y80.51-81.13 where

2018 lows are situated with a close below Y80.24 needed to shift immediate focus

to Y76.78 Nov 2016 monthly lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5967 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 3

*RES 2: A$1.5943 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5920 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5842 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5713 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 Low 

*SUP 3: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far sees the pair gaining

traction below the bull channel base off 2018 lows and focus on the

A$1.5619-1.5771 support region where the weekly bull channel base, 100-DMA and

21-WMA are noted. Daily studies now at O/S levels and looking to correct are a

concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5967 to confirm breaks of 21

& 55-DMAs and to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 3: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9 

*RES 2: 92.998 - Hourly resistance May 10 

*RES 1: 92.841 - Low May 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 92.687 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.952 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.589 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls again take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards

the 200-DMA as the index corrects from 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus to

90.551-91.589 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are found. Bulls now need a close above

2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA (94.716).

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1.2071 21-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.2019 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1925 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead of

this region. Above $1.2053 is needed to shift initial focus back to

$1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close below $1.1871 to see pressure back on

2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and

focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.45 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.17 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.64 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.13 Low May 11 

*SUP 2: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 3: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 4: Y108.46 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips following recent

rejections ahead of the 200-DMA & 55-WMA. Bears still need a close below the

100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus to

Y106.57-107.85 where the 55-DMA (Y107.35) is located. Bulls continue to look for

a close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall

focus to tests of 2018 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Failed To Take Out 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y132.38 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.51 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.37 High May 14

*PRICE: Y130.74 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Despite day studies correcting from O/S and adding support to the

case for a bigger correction, bears take comfort in the hesitation around the

55-DMA (Y131.25) to start the new week. The topside failure around the 55-DMA

now sees focus back on the break of Y129.91 needed to reconfirm immediate focus

on 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to add to confidence and

above the 100-DMA (Y132.67) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Struggling With Key DMAs

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $1326.5 - 100-DMA, 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1317.4 - Low May 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $1312.4 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1310.5 - Low May 10 

*SUP 2: $1306.2 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 4: $1293.3 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back to the 200-DMA last week resulted in a

test of key DMAs only to be rejected Friday. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5). The

55-DMA capped Friday with bulls still needing a close above $1332.6 to gain

traction above key DMAs and to return focus to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs

are found.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.06 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $71.89 - 2018 High May 10

*PRICE: $71.17 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.79 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Monday bears failed to capitalise on the

break of Friday's low with bulls taking comfort in the bounce that maintains

immediate pressure on the bull channel top and then the $73.25-74.36 region

above. Bears now need a close below $70.26 to ease bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to $66.85-67.63. O/B daily studies looking to correct are the

key concern for bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]