MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

25 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7520 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7643 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7582 - High May 23 & 24

*PRICE: $0.7575 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7520 - Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($0.7527) is now supporting with pressure having

returned to the $0.7582 resistance. Bears now look for a close below $0.7520 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias

and target $0.7326-68 where May & June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance

remain $0.7620-72 with bulls needing a close above the falling TL ($0.7666) to

shift focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Targeting $0.6779-0.6815

*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 1: $0.6960 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.6924 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6882 - Low May 23

*SUP 2: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has struggled this week with the pair

lacking follow through above $0.6952 and capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $0.6996 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

($0.6960) and shift initial focus to $0.7052. Momentum studies are back at

neutral levels and well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears currently focus on

tests of Nov & Dec lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0843 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0947 - High May 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0933 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0885 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0809 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0758 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise on last Friday's sell-off with the

bounce from ahead of NZ$1.0843 to start the new week confirming significance of

this level. Bulls now look for a close above NZ$1.0947 to reconfirm focus on

2018 highs. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0843 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and see focus shift back to tests of the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0758).

Correcting O/B daily studies are the key concern for bulls.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y82.00 Support Remains Key This Week

*RES 4: Y84.04 - High May 23 

*RES 3: Y83.88 - Hourly support May 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.54 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 1: Y83.05 - Hourly resistance May 24

*PRICE: Y82.76 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.38 - Low May 24

*SUP 2: Y82.18 - Low May 16

*SUP 3: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 4: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 100-DMA left the pair looking

heavy Wednesday and bears capitalised with a sell-off that has so far found

support below the 55-DMA. Correcting O/B studies are a concern for bulls. Bulls

now need a close above Y83.54 to gain breathing room and above Y84.51 to add

support to the case for a test of 200-DMA & WMAs. The Y82.00 support is key this

week. Bears need a close below to target 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.5742 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance

*RES 2: A$1.5618 - High May 23

*RES 1: A$1.5526 - High May 24

*PRICE: A$1.5468 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5454 - Low May 24 

*SUP 2: A$1.5390 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5317 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: The pair is gaining traction following the break of the weekly bull

channel base off 2017 lows with the pair now flirting with the 200-DMA

(A$1.5476). Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to initially target the 55-WMA

and then 2018 lows (A$1.5152). O/S daily studies are seen as the key concern for

bears. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5526 to gain breathing room and above

A$1.5651 to shift initial focus to 21 & 100-DMAs A$1.5742-1.5778.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.219

*RES 4: 94.260 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.188 - 2018 High May 23 

*RES 1: 93.978 - High May 24

*PRICE: 93.774 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 2: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 3: 92.873 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on recent 2018 highs remains a

concern this week and leaves the index looking heavy heading into Friday. Daily

studies correcting from O/B remain a concern for bulls. Bulls need a close above

94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias and retain focus on the 200-WMA (94.784).

Bears now need a close below 93.291 to shift initial focus back to 91.956-92.873

where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1889 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24

*PRICE: $1.1718 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1674 2018 Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $1.1648 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1624 High Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552

following fresh 2018 lows Wednesday. The Bollinger base is the key concern for

bears with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain adding

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above $1.1750 to gain

breathing room and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to $1.2019-1.2053

where the 200-DMA is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.78 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.12 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.94 Low May 24 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.26 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.95 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y110.41) has

resulted in closes below the 200-DMA adding weight to the case for a correction

back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA and 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Daily

studies correcting from O/B are a concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close

below Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to

Y106.57. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y125.03-127.54

*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.15 200-WMA

*RES 1: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.00 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y125.24 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: Y125.03 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy earlier

this week with bears taking comfort in Wednesday's sell-off and fresh 2018 lows

continuing. Daily studies are well placed for further losses with bears now

focusing their attention on the Y125.03-127.54 region where the 100-WMA and

daily bear channel base are found. Bulls now need a close above the 200-WMA to

gain breathing room and above Y130.22 to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1310.5

*RES 4: $1326.4 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1322.2 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.0 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1304.5 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1297.8 - High May 23 now support 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1277.5 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S

studies has provided the impetus for a bounce that sees gold pressuring the

200-DMA. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and

shift initial focus to $1322.2-1326.4 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now

need a close below $1297.8 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and return immediate

focus to 2018 lows.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Pressuring Key Supports

*RES 4: $73.24 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $72.90 - 2018 High May 22 

*RES 2: $72.26 - High May 23 

*RES 1: $71.22 - Hourly resistance May 24 May 23

*PRICE: $70.69 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $70.18 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $67.57 - Low May 8 

*SUP 4: $66.54 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top is less than ideal for

bulls with daily studies correcting from O/B. Bears continue to look for a close

below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to $65.38-67.57 where

the bull channel base and 55-DMA are located. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls now needing a close above $71.22 to gain

breathing room and above $72.26 to reconfirm focus on $73.24-74.58.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]