MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

30 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Returns To $0.7410 Support

*RES 4: $0.7623 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590- High May 25

*RES 1: $0.7523 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7503 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the close back below the 21-DMA with a close

below $0.7410 now needed to reconfirm the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68

where May & June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance are building and adding

weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above the falling TL ($0.7650) to end bearish hopes and shift

focus to $0.7735-0.7842.

     KIWI TECHS: Remains Capped Around 21 DMA

*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 1: $0.6959 - High May 28

*PRICE: $0.6896 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6882 - Low May 23

*SUP 2: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows struggled last week with the pair

lacking follow through above $0.6952 and capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $0.6996 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

($0.6941) and shift initial focus to $0.7052. Momentum studies are back at

neutral levels and well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears currently focus on

tests of Nov & Dec lows while $0.6996 caps.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0843 Support Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*RES 2: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0885 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0871 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0810 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0756 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0703 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's 3mth highs resulted in a

sell-off Monday that saw the pair close below the 200-DMA. Bears continue to

look for a close below NZ$1.0843 to initially target the 100-DMA and then the

55-DMA below. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the case for a correction.

Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0906 to regain the upper hand and above

NZ$1.0962 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y83.54 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 3: Y82.39 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y82.23 - Hourly resistance May 29a 

*RES 1: Y81.85 - Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: Y81.60 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.09 - Low May 29

*SUP 2: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 100-DMA has now seen the pair

aggressively break the Y82.00 support and return immediate focus to retests of

2018 lows. The Y80.24 support is now seen as key with bears needing a close

below to initially target Y76.78 Nov 2016 monthly lows. Layers of resistance

have followed the pair lower. Bulls now look for a close above the 55-DMA to

ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to Y83.54/84.51.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: A$1.5618 - High May 23

*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High May 24

*RES 2: A$1.5495 - High May 28

*RES 1: A$1.5399 - Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: A$1.5371 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5314 - Low May 29 

*SUP 2: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: A$1.5152 - 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: A$1.5079 - Low Nov 8

*COMMENTARY: The pair is currently flirting with the 55-WMA (A41.5327) with

bears needing a close below to add weight to the case for an initial test of

2018 lows. Below 2018 lows targets 100 & 200-WMAs (A$1.4866-1.4908). O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears as the pair hesitates ahead of the

200-DMA (A$1.5484). Bulls still need a close above A$1.5526 to gain breathing

room and above A$1.5651 to shift initial focus to 21 & 100-DMAs A$1.5716-1.5744.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 94.277

*RES 4: 95.886 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 1: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29

*PRICE: 94.866 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.620 - Hourly support May 29

*SUP 2: 94.277 - Low May 29

*SUP 3: 93.994 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 93.611 - Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs continue with focus now on the 95.167-95.464

resistance region. The Bollinger band top (94.628) & O/B studies remain the key

concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 94.277 to gain breathing room

and below the 21-DMA (93.268) to shift initial focus back to 91.971-92.223 where

the 200-DMA is located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Focused On $1.1311-1.1477

*RES 4: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 3: $1.1750 High May 24

*RES 2: $1.1643 Low May 25 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1604 Low May 28 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1532 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: $1.1477 Low July 20 

*SUP 3: $1.1431 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1409 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains offered with the break of $1.1552 now seeing bears

focused on 1.1311-1.1477 where 100 & 200-WMAs are situated. A close below

$1.1311 is now needed to initially focus on $1.1117 June 2017 lows. O/S studies

remain the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are accumulating and

weighing with bull snow needing a close above $1.1643 to ease bearish pressure

and target a correction to $1.1750-1.1838.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y107.85

*RES 4: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y109.72 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.13 Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: Y108.73 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.09 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support 

*SUP 3: Y106.85 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.60 Low Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's sell-off saw the pair dip into the Y107.85-108.16 region

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y109.11) are situated. Bears continue to

look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift

initial focus to Y106.60. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an

issue. Bulls now need a close above Y109.13 to gain breathing room and above

Y110.72 to shift initial focus back to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y126.47

*RES 4: Y128.53 High May 28

*RES 3: Y127.27 Hourly resistance May 29

*RES 2: Y126.47 Low June 28 now resistance

*RES 1: Y125.80 Alternating support/resistance

*PRICE: Y125.42 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: Y123.63 Low June 21 2017 

*SUP 3: Y122.40 Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 Low 

*SUP 4: Y122.38 Monthly Low June 15 2017

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs resulted in a dip below the daily bear

channel base coming in around Y124.96. The break of the key Y125.80 level adds

weight to the case for a test of the Y122.38-40 region where the weekly bull

channel base off 2016 lows is found although a weekly close below Y125.80 would

be ideal. O/S studies and the Bollinger base (Y126.06) are hinting the move is a

little overdone. Bulls now need a close above Y126.47 to gain breathing room.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Dominate While $1310.5 Caps

*RES 4: $1325.8 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1320.9 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.2 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1298.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1282.7 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1277.1 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S

studies provided the impetus for a bounce that saw gold pressuring the 200-DMA.

Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift

initial focus to $1320.9-1325.8 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now need a

close below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus On $63.87-65.38

*RES 4: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25

*RES 3: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $67.96 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $67.42 - Low May 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $66.87 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $65.80 - Low May 28 

*SUP 2: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: $64.49 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $63.87 - High Apr 5

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus

for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $63.87-65.38

support region with the contract flirting with the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a

close below $63.87 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target $61.73

Apr lows. Bulls now need a close above $67.42 to gain breathing room and above

$68.30 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($70.12).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]