MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To Dec 2016 Low

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 2: $0.7407 - High June 27

*RES 1: $0.7351 - Hourly support June 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7341 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7323 - 2018 Low June 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7152 - Monthly Low Dec 26 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows see bears shift focus to the $0.7152 Dec

2016 monthly low although the weekly bear channel base ($0.7234) may slow the

move. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($0.7279) are key concerns for

bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7443 to gain breathing room and above

$0.7481 to shift initial focus back to $0.7544-0.7627 where the 55 ($0.7544) DMA

is located. Above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     KIWI TECHS: Focus Shifts To $0.6543-0.6674 Region

*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6845 - Low June 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6823 - Low June 21 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6804 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6776 - Low June 27

*SUP 2: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 3: $0.6580 - Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.6574 - Low Mar 16 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation at $0.6921 has resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr

lows with bearish focus now on the $0.6543-0.6674 region where the weekly bear

channel base and monthly lows are situated. O/S studies and the Bollinger base

($0.6795) are key concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6845 to

gain breathing room and above $0.6921 to shift immediate focus back to

$0.6949-0.7003 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0861 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0855 - High June 27

*RES 2: NZ$1.0813 - Hourly support June 27 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0798 - Daily Bear channel top off May high

*PRICE: NZ$1.0785 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0759 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0709 - Low June 22

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9 & June 19

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive spike higher Wednesday was aggressively rejected

ahead of the 200-DMA leaving the pair looking offered. Bears now need a close

below NZ$1.0759 to gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0709 to initially pressure

NZ$1.0655 with below this level to add weight for a test of NZ$1.0486-1.0502

where the LT rising TL is noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0906 to target 2018 highs (NZ$1.1073).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.93 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 2: Y81.93 - High June 22 

*RES 1: Y81.63 - High June 27

*PRICE: Y80.94 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 2: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 3: Y80.25 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the Y81.93 resistance have left the pair

looking offered and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears now look for a

close below Y80.24 to reconfirm a bearish bias and shift focus to Y74.50-75.95.

O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (Y80.25) are key concerns for bears.

Bulls still need a close above Y81.93 to gain breathing room and above Y82.97 to

shift focus to Y83.63-85.00 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 1: A$1.5825 - High June 27

*PRICE: A$1.5737 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5718 - Daily Bull channel base off June 6 low 

*SUP 2: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5541 - Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of A$1.5771 and the 100-DMA (A$1.5772) has so far lacked

follow through with O/B daily studies now weighing. In saying that, bears now

look for a close below the bull channel base to confirm a false break higher and

return initial focus to A$1.5615-50. While the channel base supports bulls

remain focused on A$1.5887-1.5967 but now look for a close above A$1.5825 to add

support to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.568 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.529 - 2018 High June 21 

*RES 1: 95.401 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 95.305 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 95.231 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support

*SUP 2: 94.951 - Hourly support June 27

*SUP 3: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 4: 93.171 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on a dip below the 21-DMA (94.282) has seen the

index bounce back towards 2018 highs. Bulls continue to look for a close above

the 100-WMA (95.568). A close above the 100-WMA remains needed to target 96.617.

94.028 remains key support. Bears look for a close below 94.028 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (94.282) and shift initial focus to 93.193.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Returns To 2018 Low

*RES 4: $1.1705 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 3: $1.1670 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1644 Hourly resistance June 27

*RES 1: $1.1598 Low June 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1551 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1522 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1434 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA and bear channel top has seen

pressure return to the 2018 low ($1.1506). Bears look for a close below $1.1506

to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1434) & 200 ($1.1399) WMAs

may support along the way. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing.

Bulls now need a close above $1.1598 to gain breathing room and above $1.1723 to

target $1.1854-1.1901.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 2: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 1: Y110.48 High June 27

*PRICE: Y110.23 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.51 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.19 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 following the bounces from

around the 55-DMA this week. Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to confirm

traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.19) and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98.

Bears still need a close below Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

(Y109.51) and Bull channel base, initially pressuring Y107.85-108.19 where the

100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y126.22-98 Today

*RES 4: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: Y128.81 High June 25

*RES 2: Y128.54 Hourly resistance June 25

*RES 1: Y127.56 Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: Y127.34 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at Y128.81 sees the pair trading below the bull channel

base (Y127.78) off 2018 lows with immediate focus on Y126.22-98 today. Bears

need a close below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows. O/S

daily studies and the Bollinger base (Y126.71) are concerns for bears. The

Y128.81 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish

pressure and above Y129.65 to pressure layers of resistance Y129.91-131.37.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 3: $1274.4 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: $1272.5 - High June 25

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1251.6 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $1237.6 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows add weight to the bearish case targeting

tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.6. The Bollinger

base ($1253.1) and O/S daily studies looking to correct are noted as key concern

for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room and above $1292.1 to return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below $71.40

*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 

*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $73.06 - High June 27

*PRICE: $72.30 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26 

*SUP 3: $69.44 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.88 - Hourly resistance June 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($67.90) provided the base for an

aggressive rally and bullish close that probed the $72.70-73.25 region

Wednesday. Bulls need a close above $73.25 to shift focus to $77.83-79.85 levels

last seen in Nov 2014. Initial support is noted at $71.40 with bears needing a

close below to gain breathing room and below $69.44 to shift initial focus back

to the 55-DMA ($67.93).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]