RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ECB's Wunsch Sees At Least Two Cuts By Dec

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Mon; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1043 Mon; -4.74% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: China’s April Loan Prime Rate Unchanged

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1043 MON VS 7.1046

INDON Sov Curve Flatter, Trade Surplus Soars, BI Decision Wednesday

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 619; OIL RIGS 511; GAS RIGS 106

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, UK Synd W/C 22 Apr, BoE APF Mon

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis 

28 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To Dec 2016 Low
*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15
*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26
*RES 2: $0.7407 - High June 27
*RES 1: $0.7351 - Hourly support June 27 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7341 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7323 - 2018 Low June 27 
*SUP 2: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 
*SUP 3: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support 
*SUP 4: $0.7152 - Monthly Low Dec 26 2016
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows see bears shift focus to the $0.7152 Dec
2016 monthly low although the weekly bear channel base ($0.7234) may slow the
move. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($0.7279) are key concerns for
bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7443 to gain breathing room and above
$0.7481 to shift initial focus back to $0.7544-0.7627 where the 55 ($0.7544) DMA
is located. Above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.
     KIWI TECHS: Focus Shifts To $0.6543-0.6674 Region
*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 
*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*RES 2: $0.6845 - Low June 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: $0.6823 - Low June 21 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.6804 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6776 - Low June 27
*SUP 2: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016
*SUP 3: $0.6580 - Weekly Bear channel base
*SUP 4: $0.6574 - Low Mar 16 2017
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation at $0.6921 has resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr
lows with bearish focus now on the $0.6543-0.6674 region where the weekly bear
channel base and monthly lows are situated. O/S studies and the Bollinger base
($0.6795) are key concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6845 to
gain breathing room and above $0.6921 to shift immediate focus back to
$0.6949-0.7003 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.
     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of 200-DMA
*RES 4: NZ$1.0861 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0855 - High June 27
*RES 2: NZ$1.0813 - Hourly support June 27 now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.0798 - Daily Bear channel top off May high
*PRICE: NZ$1.0785 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0759 - Hourly support June 26
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0709 - Low June 22
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9 & June 19
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive spike higher Wednesday was aggressively rejected
ahead of the 200-DMA leaving the pair looking offered. Bears now need a close
below NZ$1.0759 to gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0709 to initially pressure
NZ$1.0655 with below this level to add weight for a test of NZ$1.0486-1.0502
where the LT rising TL is noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to ease
bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0906 to target 2018 highs (NZ$1.1073).
     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.93 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 
*RES 2: Y81.93 - High June 22 
*RES 1: Y81.63 - High June 27
*PRICE: Y80.94 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y80.63 - Low June 19
*SUP 2: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23
*SUP 3: Y80.25 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016
*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the Y81.93 resistance have left the pair
looking offered and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears now look for a
close below Y80.24 to reconfirm a bearish bias and shift focus to Y74.50-75.95.
O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (Y80.25) are key concerns for bears.
Bulls still need a close above Y81.93 to gain breathing room and above Y82.97 to
shift focus to Y83.63-85.00 where the 200-DMA is noted.
     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9
*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High May 15
*RES 1: A$1.5825 - High June 27
*PRICE: A$1.5737 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5718 - Daily Bull channel base off June 6 low 
*SUP 2: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 
*SUP 3: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 
*SUP 4: A$1.5541 - Low June 18
*COMMENTARY: The break of A$1.5771 and the 100-DMA (A$1.5772) has so far lacked
follow through with O/B daily studies now weighing. In saying that, bears now
look for a close below the bull channel base to confirm a false break higher and
return initial focus to A$1.5615-50. While the channel base supports bulls
remain focused on A$1.5887-1.5967 but now look for a close above A$1.5825 to add
support to their case.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA
*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 
*RES 3: 95.568 - 100-WMA 
*RES 2: 95.529 - 2018 High June 21 
*RES 1: 95.401 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: 95.305 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 95.231 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support
*SUP 2: 94.951 - Hourly support June 27
*SUP 3: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26
*SUP 4: 93.171 - Low June 26
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on a dip below the 21-DMA (94.282) has seen the
index bounce back towards 2018 highs. Bulls continue to look for a close above
the 100-WMA (95.568). A close above the 100-WMA remains needed to target 96.617.
94.028 remains key support. Bears look for a close below 94.028 to confirm a
break of the 21-DMA (94.282) and shift initial focus to 93.193.
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Returns To 2018 Low
*RES 4: $1.1705 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high
*RES 3: $1.1670 21-DMA
*RES 2: $1.1644 Hourly resistance June 27
*RES 1: $1.1598 Low June 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1551 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1522 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 
*SUP 4: $1.1434 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA and bear channel top has seen
pressure return to the 2018 low ($1.1506). Bears look for a close below $1.1506
to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1434) & 200 ($1.1399) WMAs
may support along the way. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing.
Bulls now need a close above $1.1598 to gain breathing room and above $1.1723 to
target $1.1854-1.1901.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 
*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 2: Y110.90 High June 15 
*RES 1: Y110.48 High June 27
*PRICE: Y110.23 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.51 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 
*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 
*SUP 4: Y108.19 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 following the bounces from
around the 55-DMA this week. Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to confirm
traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.19) and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98.
Bears still need a close below Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA
(Y109.51) and Bull channel base, initially pressuring Y107.85-108.19 where the
100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y126.22-98 Today
*RES 4: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: Y128.81 High June 25
*RES 2: Y128.54 Hourly resistance June 25
*RES 1: Y127.56 Hourly support June 26 now resistance
*PRICE: Y127.34 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.98 Low June 21 
*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 
*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at Y128.81 sees the pair trading below the bull channel
base (Y127.78) off 2018 lows with immediate focus on Y126.22-98 today. Bears
need a close below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows. O/S
daily studies and the Bollinger base (Y126.71) are concerns for bears. The
Y128.81 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish
pressure and above Y129.65 to pressure layers of resistance Y129.91-131.37.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA
*RES 4: $1284.1 - High June 19 
*RES 3: $1274.4 - 100-WMA 
*RES 2: $1272.5 - High June 25
*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance
*PRICE: $1251.6 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 
*SUP 2: $1237.6 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low
*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 
*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows add weight to the bearish case targeting
tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.6. The Bollinger
base ($1253.1) and O/S daily studies looking to correct are noted as key concern
for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA to gain
breathing room and above $1292.1 to return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below $71.40
*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 
*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 
*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 
*RES 1: $73.06 - High June 27
*PRICE: $72.30 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 
*SUP 2: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26 
*SUP 3: $69.44 - High June 25 now support 
*SUP 4: $68.88 - Hourly resistance June 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($67.90) provided the base for an
aggressive rally and bullish close that probed the $72.70-73.25 region
Wednesday. Bulls need a close above $73.25 to shift focus to $77.83-79.85 levels
last seen in Nov 2014. Initial support is noted at $71.40 with bears needing a
close below to gain breathing room and below $69.44 to shift initial focus back
to the 55-DMA ($67.93).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Close
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
 of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        window.dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'logedout',
    'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut'
  });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        (function appendPosts () {  
    var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span');
    policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts);
    policyPosts.style.display = "block";
  
    var empolicyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('em-policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var empolicyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.em-policy-posts-span');
    empolicyPostsMenu.append(empolicyPosts);
    empolicyPosts.style.display = "block";

    var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span');
    dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts);
    dataPosts.style.display = "block";
})();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){
  item.href="/core/users/email_login/";
  item.innerHTML="Log In";
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) {
    img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return false;
    });
  });
  document
    .querySelector(".site-logo img")
    .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return true;
    });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        
  let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)");
  window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts");
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        /*
const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container');
const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content');
const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream');
if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) {
  if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) {
    console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight);
    stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px';
  }
}
*/
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});