MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7487 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 1: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7420 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7397 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to

tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA

to hint at a move back to $0.7590-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7590) & 200 ($0.7682)

DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6809 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.6804 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6775 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6747 - Hourly resistance July 13 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6723 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: The failure at the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp sell-off Wednesday

and focus back on the $0.6674 2018 low. Bears look for a close at fresh 2018

lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel base coming in around $0.6569

today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a

close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $0.6882 to shift initial

focus to $0.6907-21 where the 55-DMA ($0.6907) is situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1006

*RES 4: NZ$1.1027 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 1: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16

*PRICE: NZ$1.0948 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0935 - Low July 16

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0893 - Low July 12

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0861 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.1027) impacted with a

lack of follow through on recent week's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in

bounces from around the 200-DMA but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006

to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support

is noted at NZ$1.0935 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.

The 55-DMA (NZ$1.0836) support is key this week. Bears now need a close below to

shift initial focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0793.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y84.59 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 2: Y84.26 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y83.68 - High June 14

*PRICE: Y83.29 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.99 - Low July 13

*SUP 2: Y82.72 - High July 10 now support

*SUP 3: Y82.07 - Low July 11

*SUP 4: Y82.01 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The closes above Y83.16 add to bullish confidence and see focus on

Y84.53-89 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies looking to correct from

O/B levels are a key concern for bulls. Initial support is now noted at Y82.99

but bears need a close below Y82.72 to gain breathing room. The Y81.59 support

remains key this week. Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction

below the 21-DMA (Y82.01) and shift focus back to Y80.24-63.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5887-1.5967 Resistance Region Remains Key

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High July 3

*RES 2: A$1.5860 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5802 - Hourly support July 12 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5782 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5750 - Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 2: A$1.5694 - Low June 27 

*SUP 3: A$1.5664 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5650 - Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5887-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5887 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears continue to

look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially focus on A$1.5541-98 where the

200-DMA is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.713 Support Key

*RES 4: 95.530 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 95.241 - High July 13 

*RES 2: 95.067 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 94.774 - High July 16

*PRICE: 94.508 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 2: 93.971 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through in past weeks with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from

the 55-DMA last week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.530)

to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 93.713 to confirm traction

below the 55-DMA, initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a move back to 100

(92.228) & 200 (92.269) DMAs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating At 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1728 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1709 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1673 Low July 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.1610 Low July 13 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1733) was lacking last week and

resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below

this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to

confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls

now need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA, easing

bearish pressure, and above the 55-WMA ($1.1928) to shift initial focus to

$1.1983-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1983) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y111.86

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.27 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs last week with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region

where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (Y112.58) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure

and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.85 where key DMAs and the

bull channel base (Y110.73) off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 3: Y131.91 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.70 High July 16

*RES 1: Y131.55 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y131.53 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA and target

Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily studies

looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.05) limiting follow through are

key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.64 to gain breathing

room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA

(Y129.28) to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1271.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 2: $1255.9 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1240.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with gold flirting with the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below

the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close

above $1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to

$1271.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted and above $1272.6 now to initially

target $1283.4-1292.1 where the bear channel top off Apr highs and the 55-DMA

($1283.4) are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $69.78 - High July 16 

*RES 3: $69.00 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $68.41 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.09 - Low July 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $67.10 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $65.86 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $64.47 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 

*SUP 3: $63.88 - Low June 19 

*SUP 4: $62.99 - Monthly Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has again taken its toll with the correct from

last week's lows stalling ahead of the $71.13 resistance. The sell-off Monday

sees immediate focus back on the 100-DMA and overall focus return to the June

monthly low. Daily studies have a room to move before O/S is an issue. Bulls now

need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $71.13 to shift

initial focus back to $72.08-98.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]