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Sterling Edging Lower Through European Open

SILVER TECHS

Bull Mode Intact

GOLD TECHS

Bearish Threat Still Present

17 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7487 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10
*RES 1: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7420 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7397 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $0.7357 - Low July 12 
*SUP 3: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2
*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to
tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.
Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.
Bulls now need a close above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA
to hint at a move back to $0.7590-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7590) & 200 ($0.7682)
DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.
     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 
*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*RES 2: $0.6809 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $0.6804 - Low July 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.6775 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6747 - Hourly resistance July 13 now support
*SUP 2: $0.6723 - Low July 13
*SUP 3: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3
*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016
*COMMENTARY: The failure at the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp sell-off Wednesday
and focus back on the $0.6674 2018 low. Bears look for a close at fresh 2018
lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel base coming in around $0.6569
today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a
close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $0.6882 to shift initial
focus to $0.6907-21 where the 55-DMA ($0.6907) is situated.
     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1006
*RES 4: NZ$1.1027 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance
*RES 2: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3
*RES 1: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16
*PRICE: NZ$1.0948 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0935 - Low July 16
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0893 - Low July 12
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0861 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.1027) impacted with a
lack of follow through on recent week's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in
bounces from around the 200-DMA but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006
to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support
is noted at NZ$1.0935 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.
The 55-DMA (NZ$1.0836) support is key this week. Bears now need a close below to
shift initial focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0793.
     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On 200-DMA
*RES 4: Y84.59 - 200-DMA 
*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 
*RES 2: Y84.26 - 100-WMA 
*RES 1: Y83.68 - High June 14
*PRICE: Y83.29 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y82.99 - Low July 13
*SUP 2: Y82.72 - High July 10 now support
*SUP 3: Y82.07 - Low July 11
*SUP 4: Y82.01 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The closes above Y83.16 add to bullish confidence and see focus on
Y84.53-89 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies looking to correct from
O/B levels are a key concern for bulls. Initial support is now noted at Y82.99
but bears need a close below Y82.72 to gain breathing room. The Y81.59 support
remains key this week. Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction
below the 21-DMA (Y82.01) and shift focus back to Y80.24-63.
     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5887-1.5967 Resistance Region Remains Key
*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9
*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High July 3
*RES 2: A$1.5860 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: A$1.5802 - Hourly support July 12 now resistance
*PRICE: A$1.5782 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5750 - Hourly support July 16 
*SUP 2: A$1.5694 - Low June 27 
*SUP 3: A$1.5664 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: A$1.5650 - Low June 22
*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5887-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls
need a close above A$1.5887 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above
A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly
highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears continue to
look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially focus on A$1.5541-98 where the
200-DMA is located.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.713 Support Key
*RES 4: 95.530 - 100-WMA 
*RES 3: 95.241 - High July 13 
*RES 2: 95.067 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance 
*RES 1: 94.774 - High July 16
*PRICE: 94.508 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 94.018 - Low July 10
*SUP 2: 93.971 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 93.713 - Low July 9
*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through in past weeks with
hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from
the 55-DMA last week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.530)
to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 93.713 to confirm traction
below the 55-DMA, initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a move back to 100
(92.228) & 200 (92.269) DMAs.
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating At 55-DMA
*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9
*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9
*RES 1: $1.1728 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1.1709 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1673 Low July 16 
*SUP 2: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 3: $1.1610 Low July 13 
*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2
*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1733) was lacking last week and
resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below
this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to
confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls
now need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA, easing
bearish pressure, and above the 55-WMA ($1.1928) to shift initial focus to
$1.1983-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1983) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y111.86
*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 
*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 
*RES 2: Y113.26 200-WMA 
*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*PRICE: Y112.27 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 
*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 
*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 
*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11
*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued
fresh 7mth highs last week with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region
where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the
Bollinger top (Y112.58) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit
follow through. Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure
and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.85 where key DMAs and the
bull channel base (Y110.73) off 2018 lows are noted.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA
*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24
*RES 3: Y131.91 200-DMA
*RES 2: Y131.70 High July 16
*RES 1: Y131.55 55-WMA
*PRICE: Y131.53 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 
*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 
*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 
*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9
*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA. Bulls continue to look
for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA and target
Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily studies
looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.05) limiting follow through are
key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.64 to gain breathing
room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA
(Y129.28) to confirm.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA
*RES 4: $1271.5 - 100-WMA 
*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 
*RES 2: $1255.9 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $1240.0 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3 
*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 
*SUP 3: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 
*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support
*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking
offered and bears have not been disappointed with gold flirting with the LT
rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below
the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.
Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close
above $1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to
$1271.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted and above $1272.6 now to initially
target $1283.4-1292.1 where the bear channel top off Apr highs and the 55-DMA
($1283.4) are situated.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $69.78 - High July 16 
*RES 3: $69.00 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $68.41 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: $68.09 - Low July 12 now resistance
*PRICE: $67.10 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $65.86 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 2: $64.47 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 
*SUP 3: $63.88 - Low June 19 
*SUP 4: $62.99 - Monthly Low June 18
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has again taken its toll with the correct from
last week's lows stalling ahead of the $71.13 resistance. The sell-off Monday
sees immediate focus back on the 100-DMA and overall focus return to the June
monthly low. Daily studies have a room to move before O/S is an issue. Bulls now
need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $71.13 to shift
initial focus back to $72.08-98.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]