MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7308

*RES 4: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 3: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7442 - High July 16

*RES 1: $0.7391 - Hourly support July 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7357 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7324 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the $0.7442-59 resistance region

ensures focus remains on 2018 lows. Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh

leg lower with a close below $0.7308 still needed to shift focus to tests of

$0.7142 2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7459 to gain

breathing room. A close above $0.7484 remains needed to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7478) and hint at a move back to $0.7578-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7578) &

200 ($0.7675) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6858 - High July 9 

*RES 2: $0.6840 - High July 17 

*RES 1: $0.6792 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.6742 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6711 - Low July 13

*SUP 2: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6566 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp

sell-off Tuesday and focus back on the $0.6674 2018 low. Bears look for a close

below 2018 lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel base coming in around

$0.6566 today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now

need a close above $0.6858 to gain breathing room and above $0.6921 to confirm

traction above the 55-DMA ($0.6893) and hint at a move back to $0.7043-70 where

100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 2: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16

*RES 1: NZ$1.0945 - High July 19

*PRICE: NZ$1.0904 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0860 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0845 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the key NZ$1.1006 resistance resulted in a dip

back to NZ$1.0845-60 Wednesday where 21, 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bears still

need a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back

to NZ$1.0775. Initial resistance remains at NZ$1.0945 with bulls needing a close

above to gain breathing room. A close above NZ$1.1006 remains needed to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: Y84.51 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.26 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: Y83.92 - High July 19 

*RES 1: Y83.38 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.70 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.52 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: Y82.22 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: Y82.07 - Low July 11

*SUP 4: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: A bearish key day reversal combined with daily studies correcting

from O/B and daily momentum divergence leave the pair looking offered and

pressure on 55 (Y82.56) & 100-DMAs. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA

to add weight to the case for a move back to Y80.24-63 with below Y81.59 to

confirm. Bulls now look for a close above Y83.38 to gain breathing room and

above Y83.92 to return focus to Y84.51-89 where the 200-DMA is situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Aggressive Bounce From Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High July 3

*RES 2: A$1.5853 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5830 - High July 18

*PRICE: A$1.5827 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5748 - Hourly resistance July 19 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5658 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5654 - Low July 19 

*SUP 4: A$1.5650 - Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5887-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5887 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears now look

for a close below A$1.5648 to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to

initially focus on A$1.5541-1.5608 where the 200-DMA is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 97.045 - Low June 19 2017 now resistance 

*RES 3: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 

*RES 2: 95.536 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 95.422 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 95.169 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.774 - High July 16 now support

*SUP 2: 94.409 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: 94.114 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top Thursday which sees pressure back on the 94.114-774 support region

where the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base off Apr lows is noted. Bears now

look for a close below 94.774 to gain breathing room and below 93.713 to confirm

traction below the 55-DMA and bull channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193,

and hint at a move back to 100 (92.367) & 200 (92.295) DMAs. Bulls continue to

look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.536) to target 96.617.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 3: $1.1744 High July 17

*RES 2: $1.1710 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1678 High July 19

*PRICE: $1.1640 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1572 Low July 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1562 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of $1.1589 is less than

ideal for bears with the Bollinger base noted at $1.1564 and remaining the key

concern. Bears now need a close below $1.1562 to confirm a break of the weekly

bull channel base and initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed

to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1450) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819.

Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and ease

bearish pressure. Above the 55-WMA ($1.1927) remains needed to shift initial

focus to $1.1964-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1964) & 200 ($1.1980) DMAs are found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal, Capped Ahead Of 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.45 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.55 High July 16 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs have now lacked follow through with a bearish key

day reversal combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and daily momentum

divergence adding weight to the case for a correction back to 110.75. A close

below this level is then needed to pressure the Y108.85-110.34 region where key

DMAs are noted. Bulls now need a close above Y112.69 to return pressure to

Y113.24-74 where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. 

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.64

*RES 4: Y132.35 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y131.89 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.77 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 1: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Y130.94 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y130.27 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9

*COMMENTARY: The pair has failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54).

Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the

55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B

daily studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.41) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.64 to

shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below Y129.83 hints at a move back to

Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.29) to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1233.9 - 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1229.2 - High July 18

*PRICE: $1222.4 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 2: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 3: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1180.7 - Weekly Low Jan 27 2017

*COMMENTARY: Flirtation with the LT rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and

pressure on the 200-WMA have taken their toll with gold gaining traction below

the 200-WMA and bears focused on $1204.6 July 2017 lows. The Bollinger base

($1224.1) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

The lack of follow through on fresh 2018 lows is less than ideal with daily

studies now at O/S levels. Bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to gain

breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial focus to $1271.3-1272.6 where

the 100-WMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 2: $69.42 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.79 - High July 19

*PRICE: $68.24 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $66.05 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $65.89 - High June 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $64.70 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the $65.89-66.05

supports with a close below $67.21 now needed to buy bears breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]