MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Kyle Shortland

     BEIJING (MNI) - 

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7442 - High July 16

*PRICE: $0.7415 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7385 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7329 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end the week that returns pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls now need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7477) and hint at a move back to $0.7575-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7575) & 200

($0.7673) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Bears now need a close

below $0.7385 to ease pressure on resistance layers and return focus to 2018

lows.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6858

*RES 4: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6858 - High July 9 

*RES 2: $0.6840 - High July 17 

*RES 1: $0.6817 - High July 20

*PRICE: $0.6792 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6770 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6711 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to make fresh 2018 lows and shift focus to the weekly

bear channel base coming in around $0.6543. The $0.6858-0.6921 resistance region

where the 55-DMA ($0.6890) is located remains key. Bulls now need a close above

$0.6858 to gain breathing room and above $0.6921 to confirm traction above the

55-DMA and hint at a move back to $0.7040-70 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Bears now need a close below $0.6770 to ease pressure on resistance layers.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 2: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16

*RES 1: NZ$1.0945 - High July 19

*PRICE: NZ$1.0909 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0860 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0848 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the key NZ$1.1006 resistance resulted in a dip

back to NZ$1.0848-60 Wednesday where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bears still

need a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back

to NZ$1.0775. Initial resistance remains at NZ$1.0945 with bulls needing a close

above to gain breathing room. A close above NZ$1.1006 remains needed to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y84.31 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y83.92 - High July 19 

*RES 2: Y83.38 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y83.00 - High July 20

*PRICE: Y82.64 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.29 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: Y82.07 - Low July 11

*SUP 3: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*SUP 4: Y80.99 - Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: A bearish key day reversal combined with daily studies correcting

from O/B and daily momentum divergence left the pair looking offered and

pressure on the 21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to add

weight to the case for a move back to Y80.24-63 with below Y81.59 to confirm.

Bulls now look for a close above Y83.00 to gain breathing room and above Y83.92

to return focus to Y84.49-89 where the 200-DMA is situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5889 - High July 20

*RES 2: A$1.5853 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5834 - Hourly resistance July 20

*PRICE: A$1.5797 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5780 - Low July 20 

*SUP 2: A$1.5748 - Hourly resistance July 19 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5656 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5654 - Low July 19

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5889-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5889 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears now look

for a close below A$1.5748 to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to

initially focus on A$1.5541-1.5612 where the 200-DMA is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 97.045 - Low June 19 2017 now resistance 

*RES 3: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 

*RES 2: 95.537 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 95.422 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 94.449 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.148 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top Thursday which sees pressure back on 94.161-485 where the 55-DMA

and daily bull channel base off Apr lows is noted. Bears now look for a close

below 93.713 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and bull channel base, initial

focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint at a move back to 100 (92.413) & 200 (92.302)

DMAs. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.529) to target

96.617.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1765

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1744 High July 17

*PRICE: $1.1729 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1708 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1678 High July 19 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of $1.1589 was less than

ideal for bears with the Bollinger base ($1.1572) the key concern. Bears now

need a close below $1.1562 to confirm a break of the weekly bull channel base

and initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to confirm breaks

of 100 ($1.1450) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls need a close

above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and ease bearish pressure.

Above the 55-WMA ($1.1934) remains needed to shift initial focus to

$1.1959-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1959) & 200 ($1.1980) DMAs are found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pressuring Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 3: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 2: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20

*PRICE: Y111.37 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.24 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.04 Daily Bull channel base off Mar lows 

*SUP 3: Y110.75 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y110.42 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs lacked follow through with a bearish key day

reversal combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and daily momentum

divergence adding weight to the case for a correction back to 110.75. A close

below Y110.75 is needed to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bull channel base,

pressure the Y109.95-110.42 region where key DMAs are noted. Bulls now need a

close above Y112.69 to return pressure to Y113.26-74 where the 200-WMA, 2018 &

Dec highs are located. The Bollinger top is noted at Y113.15 and currently

limits follow through.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressuring 100-DMA To Start The Week

*RES 4: Y131.88 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.77 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 2: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 1: Y131.20 High July 20

*PRICE: Y130.61 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: Y130.26 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 4: Y129.29 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair has failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54)

last week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a

break of the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is

noted. O/B daily studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.41) are

key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to shift

initial focus back to Y129.83. Below Y129.83 hints at a move back to Y128.40

with below the 55-DMA (Y129.29) to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1247.4 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1231.4 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1227.1 - Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 2: $1219.6 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 4: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce to end the week after downside follow through

was lacking is less than ideal for bears when combined with daily studies

correcting from O/S and the proximity of the Bollinger base ($1222.6). In saying

that, bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above

$1260.2 to return initial focus to $1271.4-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted.

Bears remain focused on $1204.6 while $1236.6 caps.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 2: $69.57 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.91 - High July 19

*PRICE: $68.26 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 2: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $66.12 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.89 - High June 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the $65.89-66.12

supports with a close below $67.21 now needed to buy bears breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]