MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 1: $0.7475 - Bollinger band top, 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7454 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $0.7333 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls now need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7475) and hint at a move back to $0.7564-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7564) & 200

($0.7667) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. While $0.7484 caps

bears retain initial focus on retests of 2018 lows.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6858

*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 3: $0.6882 - 55-DMA, Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6858 - High July 9 

*RES 1: $0.6854 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.6836 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6821 - Hourly support July 25

*SUP 2: $0.6766 - Low July 24

*SUP 3: $0.6711 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to make fresh 2018 lows and shift focus to the weekly

bear channel base coming in around $0.6543. The $0.6858-0.6921 resistance region

where the 55-DMA ($0.6882) is located remains key. Bulls now need a close above

$0.6858 to gain breathing room and above $0.6921 to confirm traction above the

55-DMA and hint at a move back to $0.7026-60 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Bears now need a close below $0.6821 to ease pressure on resistance layers.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0853 Support Now Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 2: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16

*RES 1: NZ$1.0945 - High July 19

*PRICE: NZ$1.0902 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0857 - 200-DMA, 55-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0763 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the key NZ$1.1006 resistance continues to result

in dips back to NZ$1.0853-57 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bears now need a

close below NZ$1.0853 to confirm traction below the 55 & 200-DMAs, ending

bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to NZ$1.0775. Initial resistance

remains at NZ$1.0945 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. A

close above NZ$1.1006 remains needed to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially

targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y83.00 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y84.32 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y83.92 - High July 19 

*RES 2: Y83.38 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y83.00 - High July 20

*PRICE: Y82.75 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.55 - High July 24 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.10 - Low July 25

*SUP 3: Y81.81 - Low July 24

*SUP 4: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to further capitalise on last week's bearish key

day reversal with the pair recovering some lost ground. In saying that, bulls

continue to look for a close above Y83.00 to gain breathing room and above

Y83.92 to return focus to Y84.40-89 where the 200-DMA is situated. While Y83.00

caps bears retain an advantage but now need a close below Y82.55 to ease

pressure on the Y83.00 resistance. Overall below Y81.59 is needed to confirm a

return in focus to Y80.24-63.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5889 - High July 20

*RES 2: A$1.5859 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5818 - Hourly support July 24 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5733 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5705 - Low July 25 

*SUP 2: A$1.5654 - Low July 19 

*SUP 3: A$1.5650 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5623 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5889-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5889 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. The 200-DMA is

now key support. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to end bullish hopes and

hint at a move back to 2018 lows with below A$1.5541 to add weight to their

case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 95.280 - High July 20

*RES 3: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.665 - High July 25 

*RES 1: 94.396 - Hourly resistance July 25

*PRICE: 94.195 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 3: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 4: 92.554 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top last Thursday which sees the index flirting with the 55-DMA

(94.230). Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and below 93.713 to shift initial focus to 92.837-93.193. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 94.933 to gain breathing room and above the

100-WMA (95.515) to target 96.617.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1625 & $1.1765 Levels Key

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1728 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1655 Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 3: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1765 resistance reconfirmed significance with it capping to

start the new week. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above

the 55-DMA ($1.1698) and an easing of bearish pressure and shift initial focus

to $1.1854. Key MAs are noted $1.1934-1.1978 with bulls needing a close above

$1.1996 to confirm breaks and initially target $1.2153. Bears still need a close

below $1.1625 to return immediate focus to 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.95

*RES 4: Y113.26 200-WMA

*RES 3: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 1: Y111.54 High July 23

*PRICE: Y110.96 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.65 Low July 25 

*SUP 2: Y110.51 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.09 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.95 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.39) and daily bull channel base

off 2018 lows lacks follow through with the pair bouncing from ahead of the

55-DMA. Bears now need a close below Y109.95 to confirm breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs

and pressure Y108.96-109.37 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls look for a close

above Y111.54 to gain breathing room and above Y111.90 to return focus to

Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.83 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 2: Y131.20 High July 20

*RES 1: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23

*PRICE: Y130.18 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.78 Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.29 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: Y128.16 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54) last

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of

the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

The break of Y129.83 has so far lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus back to Y128.40. Bulls now need

a close above Y130.46 to gain breathing room and above Y131.20 to shift focus

back to the 200-DMA.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1242.0 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1231.2 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1227.6 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 2: $1217.8 - Low July 24 

*SUP 3: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 4: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to

start the new week although failure to trouble 2018 lows is less than ideal with

daily studies correcting from O/S. Bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to

gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial focus to $1270.5-1272.6

where the 100-WMA is noted. Bears remain focused on $1204.6 while $1236.6 caps.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 1: $69.87 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $69.27 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $69.19 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 2: $68.20 - Low July 25 

*SUP 3: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 4: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. In saying that, while the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the

$65.89-66.30 supports with a close below $67.52 needed to buy bears breathing

room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]