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MNI Bank Indonesia Preview - November 2022: Another 50bp To Support IDR

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Bank Indonesia (BI) meets on November 17 and is widely expected to hike rates another 50bp to 5.25%, bringing rates to their highest since September 2019.
  • 8 of the 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a lower 25bp move. The moderation in October headline CPI inflation and the slight appreciation of the USDIDR in recent days suggest that the risks to the 50bp forecast are skewed to the downside.
  • Stabilising the IDR, bringing core inflation back to target, and ensuring financial stability in the context of a robust economy are again likely to be the focus of the November meeting. A 50bp move this month would still see the Indonesian-US rate differential narrow.

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