MNI NORGES WATCH: Soft Krone Complicates 2024 Cut Signalling

CANADA RAISING INSURED MORTGAGE CEILING TO CAD1.5M FROM CAD1M

FREELAND SAYS CANADA SOFT LANDING APPEARS TO BE IN SIGHT

MNI BRIEF: China CPI Expected To Rise Moderately - NBS

MNI BRIEF: China Aug Output, Investment Hit Lowest Of The Year

CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +4.5% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.6% Y/Y: NBS

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Latvia Syndi; UK, FI Due Tuesday

MNI: CANADIAN JUL MANUFACTURING SALES +1.4% MOM

MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 11.5 SEP

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI Bank Indonesia Preview – September 2024: First Watch The Fed

We don't expect BI to cut rates in September but will likely watch what the Fed does first.

Asia Bank - PreviewHomepageBank of Indonesia - PreviewEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewEmerging Market News

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bank Indonesia (BI) meets on September 18 and will announce its decision hours before the Fed. With meetings every month, BI has the flexibility to watch and wait and is unlikely to feel the pressure to cut rates on the day the Fed is widely expected to begin easing, especially given uncertainties. 6/35 on Bloomberg expect a 25bp cut.
  • BI should be happy with the progress of rupiah strengthening but FX stability is likely to remain its focus. USDIDR is now lower than it was when BI hiked in April and October and the IDR NEER higher than in April. Its reliance on money market deepening tools to support the currency is likely to continue unwinding ahead of rate cuts.
  • In August, Governor Warjiyo said that BI’s focus in Q3 is on FX stability and that it needs more certainty on the outlook before it eases, which he reiterated is likely to be in Q4. The swearing in of Indonesia's new President Prabowo and US elections which take place after BI's October 16 meeting may push the first cut out to November.

Click to view full preview:

BI Preview - September 2024.pdf

200 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bank Indonesia (BI) meets on September 18 and will announce its decision hours before the Fed. With meetings every month, BI has the flexibility to watch and wait and is unlikely to feel the pressure to cut rates on the day the Fed is widely expected to begin easing, especially given uncertainties. 6/35 on Bloomberg expect a 25bp cut.
  • BI should be happy with the progress of rupiah strengthening but FX stability is likely to remain its focus. USDIDR is now lower than it was when BI hiked in April and October and the IDR NEER higher than in April. Its reliance on money market deepening tools to support the currency is likely to continue unwinding ahead of rate cuts.
  • In August, Governor Warjiyo said that BI’s focus in Q3 is on FX stability and that it needs more certainty on the outlook before it eases, which he reiterated is likely to be in Q4. The swearing in of Indonesia's new President Prabowo and US elections which take place after BI's October 16 meeting may push the first cut out to November.

Click to view full preview:

BI Preview - September 2024.pdf