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MNI Bank of Thailand Preview – August 2024: Policy “neutral”, No Hurry To Cut

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is expected to leave rates at 2.5% on August 21. Governor Sethaput has reiterated that current policy and CPI target are "appropriate" as inflation should return to target in Q4 2024. He was also confident that the central bank's growth forecast would be achieved.
  • Also, rates are “neutral” and the central bank wants to continue to pressure elevated household debt, plus there is political uncertainty given the change in PM. So, there is little reason at this point to change rates.
  • The smoothness of replacing the PM should help reduce political risks to the economy, but new PM Paetongtarn announced that there would be a review into the digital wallet scheme to ensure it complies with fiscal discipline laws. Thus, the change in leadership has created some fiscal uncertainty.
  • BoT remains flexible and will be watching growth outcomes closely and a dovish shift could be driven by a deterioration in the outlook.

Click to view full preview:

BoT Preview - August 2024.pdf

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