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MEXICO: MNI Banxico Preview - Feb 2025: Board Expected To Step Up Easing Pace

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletEmerging Market NewsNorth America

Executive Summary

  • Consensus has been building towards Banxico accelerating the easing pace in February, with the committee expected to cut the key rate by 50bp to 9.50%. This would be in line with prior dovish rhetoric in the December statement, which indicated that larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings.
  • Supporting a bolder cut is the continued progress lower for headline inflation, weaker-than-expected domestic GDP data and the loss of one of the most hawkish voices of the committee.
  • Amid the heightened uncertainty related to US tariffs and the associated MXN sensitivity, analysts had been split over the potential Banxico response this month. However, the latest tariff delay and more optimistic discussions between US and Mexican administrations leaves a bolder rate cut as the most likely move at this juncture.
    • Click to view the full preview here. 
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Executive Summary

  • Consensus has been building towards Banxico accelerating the easing pace in February, with the committee expected to cut the key rate by 50bp to 9.50%. This would be in line with prior dovish rhetoric in the December statement, which indicated that larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings.
  • Supporting a bolder cut is the continued progress lower for headline inflation, weaker-than-expected domestic GDP data and the loss of one of the most hawkish voices of the committee.
  • Amid the heightened uncertainty related to US tariffs and the associated MXN sensitivity, analysts had been split over the potential Banxico response this month. However, the latest tariff delay and more optimistic discussions between US and Mexican administrations leaves a bolder rate cut as the most likely move at this juncture.
    • Click to view the full preview here.