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MNI BCB Preview – Nov 2024: Bolder 50BP Hike Expected

Unanimous survey estimates and market pricing indicate the BCB will deliver a 50bp Selic rate hike to 11.25%.

Executive Summary

  • Unanimous survey estimates and market pricing indicate the BCB will deliver a 50bp Selic rate hike to 11.25%, after initiating a short tightening cycle in September.
  • Inflation expectations continue to drift higher and together with the ongoing BRL depreciation, the central bank will be justified in stepping up the tightening pace at this juncture.
  • Resilient economic growth, tight labour market conditions and fiscal uncertainties would also justify a more hawkish tone in the accompanying statement.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCB Preview - November 2024.pdf

 

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Executive Summary

  • Unanimous survey estimates and market pricing indicate the BCB will deliver a 50bp Selic rate hike to 11.25%, after initiating a short tightening cycle in September.
  • Inflation expectations continue to drift higher and together with the ongoing BRL depreciation, the central bank will be justified in stepping up the tightening pace at this juncture.
  • Resilient economic growth, tight labour market conditions and fiscal uncertainties would also justify a more hawkish tone in the accompanying statement.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCB Preview - November 2024.pdf

 

Keep reading...Show less