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MNI BCB Review – Jan 2025: 100bp Hike, Guidance Maintained

The Copom continued its tightening cycle with another 100bp hike of the Selic rate to 13.25%, in line with expectations.
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 Executive Summary

  • The Copom continued its tightening cycle with another 100bp hike of the Selic rate to 13.25%, in line with expectations.
  • The decision was unanimous as the committee maintained a hawkish tone, reiterating its guidance for another 100bp hike at the next Copom meeting in March.
  • Beyond March, the guidance remained open-ended, with the degree of tightening dependant on the incoming data. Analysts expect the Selic rate to rise further in Q2, with many seeing the terminal rate in a 15.0-15.5% range, with risks skewed to the upside.

Click to view the full review: MNI BCB Review - January 2025.pdf

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 Executive Summary

  • The Copom continued its tightening cycle with another 100bp hike of the Selic rate to 13.25%, in line with expectations.
  • The decision was unanimous as the committee maintained a hawkish tone, reiterating its guidance for another 100bp hike at the next Copom meeting in March.
  • Beyond March, the guidance remained open-ended, with the degree of tightening dependant on the incoming data. Analysts expect the Selic rate to rise further in Q2, with many seeing the terminal rate in a 15.0-15.5% range, with risks skewed to the upside.

Click to view the full review: MNI BCB Review - January 2025.pdf