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MNI BCB Review - May 2022: Tightening Cycle to Slow From Here

Executive Summary:

  • BCB raised the SELIC rate by 100bps, alongside expectations
  • Bank signaled tightening pace will slow from here
  • Leaves door open to a 50 - 75bps hike in June
Full review here:

MNIBCBRevMay22.pdf

Matching expectations, the BCB raised rates by 100bps to 12.75% on Wednesday, but signalled that this month’s hike will not be the final rate rise of this tightening cycle. This extends the bank’s hawkish tilt into the coming meetings, despite suggesting in previous statements that a May hike could be the final step in their current campaign against inflation.

The accompanying policy statement removed previous references to the terminal rate of 12.75% being “sufficient for inflation convergence to levels around the target over the relevant horizon”, thereby opening the door for further rate rises this year as inflation expectations continue to run higher.

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