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MNI BI Preview – February 2022: Turning Hawkish, Maintaining Flexibility

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Following Bank Indonesia's January meeting, Governor Warjiyo outlined a plan for withdrawing liquidity through a series of hikes to the reserve requirement ratio. Raising the key policy rate would be considered when the Board of Governors sees signs of rising price pressures.
  • Consumer price growth has only just returned into the target range, while the rupiah has generally been stable, which puts Bank Indonesia in a comfortable position to wait and start normalising policy when they deem appropriate.
  • The hawkish tilt in Bank Indonesia's rhetoric parallels a pivot in the Fed's stance, but it is unlikely that Governor Warjiyo & Co. will deliver a rate hike this week. We expect them to keep the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate unchanged, with focus on their inflation outlook and language surrounding the broader policy stance.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BI Preview February 2022.pdf

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