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  • We believe the most likely outcome of this week's monetary policy meeting is no change to the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate, but adjustments to the planned RRR hikes are on the table. A 25bp hike to the key policy rate cannot be entirely ruled out and remains a plausible hawkish scenario.
  • Aggressive tightening delivered by the Fed has resulted in sharp rupiah depreciation and capital outflows from Indonesia, placing the local central bank under pressure to follow suit. Projections suggesting that headline inflation will breach the upped end of the Bank's tolerance band this year lend support to the case for tightening sooner.
  • Importantly though, official rhetoric suggests that policymakers pay more attention to core inflation, which remains under the mid-point of the +2.0-4.0% Y/Y target range and is not forecast to accelerate past +4.0%. It is likely that Bank Indonesia will take advantage of relatively benign core inflation outlook to ensure a sustainable post-COVID economic recovery.

Fig. 1: BI Real Policy Rate Falls Into Negative Territory

Click to view the full preview: MNI BI Preview June 2022.pdf

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