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MNI BI Preview - May 2023: Extended Pause, Easing Talk Too Soon

INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK
  • Bank Indonesia is unanimously expected to keep rates at 5.75% at its May 25 meeting. It appears that there is now an extended pause in rate moves, while discussion of when the first rate cut will be grows.
  • Inflation and FX developments have moved in BI's desired direction, assuring it that it made the right decision to pause. At the same time, the growth outlook looks positive although foreign demand is soft. (BI Preview also includes economic roundup.)
  • BI seems to be on an extended pause with the next move likely to be an easing of monetary conditions through rates or one of its other tools, such as winding back "operation twist". A rate reduction is unlikely until at least Q4 2023.
  • See full preview here.
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