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MNI BOE Preview - August 2023: Reaction Function Questions

BOE
  • Has the MPC’s reaction function changed? That is the question we are asking ourselves as we head into the August meeting.
  • At the June meeting we argued that we didn’t think a 50bp move was warranted. The MPC saw things differently, however, largely justifying its decision by pointing to wage growth and services inflation.
  • The MNI Markets team still thinks that 25bp hikes are more justified by the current economic data. But we find it hard to make the argument that if 50bp was justified in June that it is not justified now.
  • However, 77% of economists look for a 25bp hike while markets price in around a 30% probability of a 50bp hike, and we acknowledge the risk of a 25bp hike is large.
  • We have read through and summarised over 20 analyst reviews.
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