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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- Has the MPC’s reaction function changed? That is the question we are asking ourselves as we head into the August meeting.
- At the June meeting we argued that we didn’t think a 50bp move was warranted. The MPC saw things differently, however, largely justifying its decision by pointing to wage growth and services inflation.
- The MNI Markets team still thinks that 25bp hikes are more justified by the current economic data. But we find it hard to make the argument that if 50bp was justified in June that it is not justified now.
- However, 77% of economists look for a 25bp hike while markets price in around a 30% probability of a 50bp hike, and we acknowledge the risk of a 25bp hike is large .
- We have read through and summarised over 20 analyst reviews.
For the full preview see:
Note: We have corrected our previous email that said markets priced a 30% probability of 25bp (rather than 50bp). The PDF we originally sent was correct - the correction is just in the body of the email.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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