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MNI BoE Preview - March 2025 (Updated)

The most interesting unknown is the vote split, we suspect with a low conviction that there could be three dissenters.
Central Bank PreviewHomepageBoE - PreviewCEEMEACentral Bank ReportsUKMarketsStory

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MNI View: Uncertain vote split, near certain outcome and guidance

Note: Corrects stale analyst views from page 7 onwards.

  • It would be a huge surprise to us, markets and sellside economists if there was anything other than a pause in the MPC’s cutting cycle at the March meeting with unchanged guidance.
  • Probably the most interesting unknown is the voting split, with the number of plausible dovish dissents ranging from two to four – we suspect with a low conviction that there could be three, one more than consensus. We look at how each member is likely to vote in the detail.
  • We have read through over 20 sellside previews and summaries the sellside outlook as well as the highlights of each banks' individual view.
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MNI View: Uncertain vote split, near certain outcome and guidance

Note: Corrects stale analyst views from page 7 onwards.

  • It would be a huge surprise to us, markets and sellside economists if there was anything other than a pause in the MPC’s cutting cycle at the March meeting with unchanged guidance.
  • Probably the most interesting unknown is the voting split, with the number of plausible dovish dissents ranging from two to four – we suspect with a low conviction that there could be three, one more than consensus. We look at how each member is likely to vote in the detail.
  • We have read through over 20 sellside previews and summaries the sellside outlook as well as the highlights of each banks' individual view.