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MNI BoE Preview - November 2024: Focus on inflation forecasts

We expect a 25bp cut. The focus will be on the CPI forecasts - we see risk of either higher modal or mean projections.
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MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • We, along with the vast majority of analysts and markets, would be very surprised to see anything other than a 25bp cut at the November MPC meeting.
  • Inflation no longer consistently overshooting targets and continued moderation in wage growth argue in favour of removing restriction further.
  • However, we think there is a good chance of higher-than-expected inflation forecast. We are concerned that the extra cost of lower paid workers' wage increases plus employer NI increases will be passed through to services inflation.
  • Budget uncertainty may increase BOE cautiousness surrounding cuts - and could lead to 3 dissents against a cut at this meeting. 

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Preview - Nov24.pdf

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MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • We, along with the vast majority of analysts and markets, would be very surprised to see anything other than a 25bp cut at the November MPC meeting.
  • Inflation no longer consistently overshooting targets and continued moderation in wage growth argue in favour of removing restriction further.
  • However, we think there is a good chance of higher-than-expected inflation forecast. We are concerned that the extra cost of lower paid workers' wage increases plus employer NI increases will be passed through to services inflation.
  • Budget uncertainty may increase BOE cautiousness surrounding cuts - and could lead to 3 dissents against a cut at this meeting. 

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Preview - Nov24.pdf