MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, September 18

MNI: Japan Govt Keeps Economic View, Tweaks Corp Goods Price

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Aug Real Export Index Rises 1.3% M/M

MNI CBRT WATCH: CBRT To Hold Steady, Look For Further Progress

MNI Brief: Beijing's August Newly Built Sales Worsen

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY80.7 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF CANADA SECURITIES +11.0B CAD IN JUL

MNI: US AUG HOUSING STARTS 1.356M; PERMITS 1.475M

US MBA: REFIS +24% SA; PURCH INDEX +5% SA THRU SEP 13 WK

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI BOE Preview - September 2024: QT and Vote Split in Focus

We expect Bank Rate on hold at 5.00% but look for a faster than consensus pace of active gilt sales.
Central Bank PreviewGlobalHomepageBoE - PreviewCEEMEACentral Bank ReportsUKMarketsStoryRegion
MNI (LONDON)
  • This week’s MPC meeting is expected to see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.00% (after the first cut of the cycle in August). However, there will be focus on the vote split, any change in guidance and the QT decision.
  • For the vote split we would not be surprised to see a return to either 8-1 or 7-2 for Bank Rate to be left on hold (with Dhingra and potentially Ramsden dissenting in favour of a further immediate cut).
  • However, if there was a surprise the other way – a 6-3 vote with an additional internal MPC member or new external member Taylor joining Dhingra and Ramsden in voting for a cut at this meeting, that would be a clear sign that there is a potential for the pace of rate cuts to be ramped up at future meetings.
  • We have argued for some time that we think this is suboptimal and given there are no real market issues currently with active sales, a faster than GBP100bln reduction would be more appropriate (we pencil in GBP110bln).

For the full MNI BOE Preview including over 20 sellside analysts' views see: MNI BoE Preview - Sep24.pdf

192 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (LONDON)
  • This week’s MPC meeting is expected to see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.00% (after the first cut of the cycle in August). However, there will be focus on the vote split, any change in guidance and the QT decision.
  • For the vote split we would not be surprised to see a return to either 8-1 or 7-2 for Bank Rate to be left on hold (with Dhingra and potentially Ramsden dissenting in favour of a further immediate cut).
  • However, if there was a surprise the other way – a 6-3 vote with an additional internal MPC member or new external member Taylor joining Dhingra and Ramsden in voting for a cut at this meeting, that would be a clear sign that there is a potential for the pace of rate cuts to be ramped up at future meetings.
  • We have argued for some time that we think this is suboptimal and given there are no real market issues currently with active sales, a faster than GBP100bln reduction would be more appropriate (we pencil in GBP110bln).

For the full MNI BOE Preview including over 20 sellside analysts' views see: MNI BoE Preview - Sep24.pdf