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MNI BOE Preview - September 2024: QT and Vote Split in Focus

We expect Bank Rate on hold at 5.00% but look for a faster than consensus pace of active gilt sales.
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MNI (LONDON)
  • This week’s MPC meeting is expected to see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.00% (after the first cut of the cycle in August). However, there will be focus on the vote split, any change in guidance and the QT decision.
  • For the vote split we would not be surprised to see a return to either 8-1 or 7-2 for Bank Rate to be left on hold (with Dhingra and potentially Ramsden dissenting in favour of a further immediate cut).
  • However, if there was a surprise the other way – a 6-3 vote with an additional internal MPC member or new external member Taylor joining Dhingra and Ramsden in voting for a cut at this meeting, that would be a clear sign that there is a potential for the pace of rate cuts to be ramped up at future meetings.
  • We have argued for some time that we think this is suboptimal and given there are no real market issues currently with active sales, a faster than GBP100bln reduction would be more appropriate (we pencil in GBP110bln).

For the full MNI BOE Preview including over 20 sellside analysts' views see: MNI BoE Preview - Sep24.pdf

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MNI (LONDON)
  • This week’s MPC meeting is expected to see Bank Rate left on hold at 5.00% (after the first cut of the cycle in August). However, there will be focus on the vote split, any change in guidance and the QT decision.
  • For the vote split we would not be surprised to see a return to either 8-1 or 7-2 for Bank Rate to be left on hold (with Dhingra and potentially Ramsden dissenting in favour of a further immediate cut).
  • However, if there was a surprise the other way – a 6-3 vote with an additional internal MPC member or new external member Taylor joining Dhingra and Ramsden in voting for a cut at this meeting, that would be a clear sign that there is a potential for the pace of rate cuts to be ramped up at future meetings.
  • We have argued for some time that we think this is suboptimal and given there are no real market issues currently with active sales, a faster than GBP100bln reduction would be more appropriate (we pencil in GBP110bln).

For the full MNI BOE Preview including over 20 sellside analysts' views see: MNI BoE Preview - Sep24.pdf