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MNI BOE Review: 60% probability of a 50bp hike in August

BOE
  • The forward-looking language was strengthened in four main ways, we discuss these in the full document.
  • Markets are going even further by fully pricing a 50bp August hike with around a 25% probability of a 75bp hike. We think the debate for the MPC will be between 25bp and 50bp, and see very little chance of a larger than 50bp hike, irrespective of what other central banks do. Relative to the Fed and the ECB, the BOE’s position is different. These reasons are also discussed in the full report.
  • Markets are going even further by fully pricing a 50bp August hike with around a 25% probability of a 75bp hike. We think the debate for the MPC will be between 25bp and 50bp, and see very little chance of a larger than 50bp hike, irrespective of what other central banks do. Relative to the Fed and the ECB, the BOE’s position is different.
  • For the full document including the summaries of 22 sell-side analyst views see the full document here.
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