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MNI BoE Review - November 2024: Case 2 the Prevailing View

We analyze the new forecasts, both in the medium and short-term - and what they could mean for monpol moving forward.
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MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The MPC voted 8-1 to cut Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.75% (with only external member Catherine Mann dissenting, preferring to leave Bank Rate on hold). The decision was as expected (although we and other market participants had seen a good chance that Greene and Pill would join Mann). 
  • We look at the new forecasts, both in the medium-term and the short-term, and what they mean for monetary policy going forward.
  • A further cut in December is looking unlikely but it appears as though Mann is the only MPC member (based on currently available data) who may not vote for another 25bp cut in February.
  • 7 analysts have changed their Bank Rate forecasts in some way since the November MPC meeting and we round up analyst views - which in general are now a lot more dovish across the second half of 2025 than markets currently price.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Review - Nov24.pdf

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MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The MPC voted 8-1 to cut Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.75% (with only external member Catherine Mann dissenting, preferring to leave Bank Rate on hold). The decision was as expected (although we and other market participants had seen a good chance that Greene and Pill would join Mann). 
  • We look at the new forecasts, both in the medium-term and the short-term, and what they mean for monetary policy going forward.
  • A further cut in December is looking unlikely but it appears as though Mann is the only MPC member (based on currently available data) who may not vote for another 25bp cut in February.
  • 7 analysts have changed their Bank Rate forecasts in some way since the November MPC meeting and we round up analyst views - which in general are now a lot more dovish across the second half of 2025 than markets currently price.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Review - Nov24.pdf