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MNI BoJ Preview - March 2025: Policy Steady

The BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.50%, with no urgency for another hike after its January increase.
Central Bank PreviewBoJ - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsAPACStoryJapanMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.50% in March, with no urgency for another hike after its January increase.
  • Strong Shunto wage negotiations saw a 5.5% rise, but broader wage pass-through is needed for sustained inflation above 2%.
  • Analysts expect a gradual rate hike to 0.75% by July or September and 1.0% by early 2026, depending on SME wage trends.
  • Market pricing reflects uncertainty, with only half of a 25bps hike factored in for June and a full hike not priced until December.
  • A July hike remains the base case, but a weak yen or inflation risks could accelerate the timeline, while political instability may delay it.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.50% in March, with no urgency for another hike after its January increase.
  • Strong Shunto wage negotiations saw a 5.5% rise, but broader wage pass-through is needed for sustained inflation above 2%.
  • Analysts expect a gradual rate hike to 0.75% by July or September and 1.0% by early 2026, depending on SME wage trends.
  • Market pricing reflects uncertainty, with only half of a 25bps hike factored in for June and a full hike not priced until December.
  • A July hike remains the base case, but a weak yen or inflation risks could accelerate the timeline, while political instability may delay it.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

Keep reading...Show less