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MNI BoK Preview - May 2022: 25bp Hike Seemingly Done Deal

Tightening is all but assured at this week’s Bank of Korea (BoK) meeting. Continued upside surprises when it comes to inflationary readings and the strong focus of the new government on this issue means a 25bp hike is the most likely outcome.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Tightening is all but assured at this week’s Bank of Korea (BoK) meeting. Continued upside surprises when it comes to inflationary readings and the strong focus of the new government on this issue means a 25bp hike is the most likely outcome. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting such a move.
  • If it weren’t for uncertainties surrounding the external backdrop, particularly in relation to Chinese economic growth, a 50bp hike could have been on the cards. New BoK Governor Rhee hasn’t ruled out a step up in the pace of tightening in the second half of the year.
  • The other focus point could be the exchange rate. FX stability made its way into the joint leader’s statement after the Biden-Yoon summit.
  • Click to view full preview: BoK Preview - May 2022.pdf
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Tightening is all but assured at this week’s Bank of Korea (BoK) meeting. Continued upside surprises when it comes to inflationary readings and the strong focus of the new government on this issue means a 25bp hike is the most likely outcome. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting such a move.
  • If it weren’t for uncertainties surrounding the external backdrop, particularly in relation to Chinese economic growth, a 50bp hike could have been on the cards. New BoK Governor Rhee hasn’t ruled out a step up in the pace of tightening in the second half of the year.
  • The other focus point could be the exchange rate. FX stability made its way into the joint leader’s statement after the Biden-Yoon summit.
  • Click to view full preview: BoK Preview - May 2022.pdf