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MNI BoK Preview - May 2024: On Hold, Easing Timeline Likely Delayed

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  • None of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a change at tomorrow’s BoK policy meeting. This is also our firm bias, which would leave the policy rate at 3.50%, which is where it has been since January last year.
  • Overall, our sense is that the BoK is likely to retain confidence in a further softening in the inflation backdrop as we progress through H2 this year. However, given developments since the last policy meeting, we expect a cautious stance around near term rate cuts (i.e. in the next few months).
  • The balance of risks points more towards easing at the end of the second half rather than the beginning.
  • Full preview here:
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  • None of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a change at tomorrow’s BoK policy meeting. This is also our firm bias, which would leave the policy rate at 3.50%, which is where it has been since January last year.
  • Overall, our sense is that the BoK is likely to retain confidence in a further softening in the inflation backdrop as we progress through H2 this year. However, given developments since the last policy meeting, we expect a cautious stance around near term rate cuts (i.e. in the next few months).
  • The balance of risks points more towards easing at the end of the second half rather than the beginning.
  • Full preview here: