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AUDUSD TECHS

Breaches Key Support

BONDS

EGB/Gilt - 2yr UK yield tested 11 year high

USDCAD TECHS

Bull Rally Extends

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • A larger than expected uptick in inflation (and pipeline pressures) cemented broader expectations for a 25bp rate hike at this meeting, with almost all of the sell side looking for such a move. This moves focus to the vote split, with known dove, Joo Sangyong, providing the most obvious potential source of dissent (voted against the August hike).
  • Governor Lee pointed to the likelihood of a November hike back in October, with the evolution of the economic situation since then seemingly greenlighting such a move.
  • Despite some clear risks, the recent tweaks to BoK guidance and focus on financial imbalances, coupled with the government's focus on living with COVID, should facilitate at least one further rate hike in H122.
  • Further out, elevated levels of debt and tighter macroprudential policy may ultimately cap the terminal rate observed in the current hiking cycle.
  • Click to view full preview: BoK Preview - November 2021.pdf

Fig. 1: South Korea CPI & Core CPI (Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg