MNI BOK WATCH: Governor Rules Out Premature Cuts, Holds Rate

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong on Thursday ruled out premature rate cuts, but stressed the need for further hikes had decreased, while pledging to maintain a restrictive policy stance for some time.

The BOK monetary policy board on Thursday decided unanimously to keep its Base Rate unchanged at 3.50% amid persistent concerns over the weaker economy and despite elevated inflation rates for the eighth consecutive meeting. The move was in line with expectations. (See MNI BOK WATCH: Board To Consider Hold At 3.5%, Policy In Focus)

“Prematurely lowering the Base Rate could stimulate inflation expectations and cause inflation to rise again," Rhee warned. “Furthermore, in the current situation, the side effects of stimulating expectations for a rise in real-estate prices could outweigh the benefits of economic stimulation by cutting the rate.”

The governor also said the Board aimed to hold rates high for "a sufficiently long period of time" until its price target is met. The Board will continue to conduct monetary policy to stabilise consumer price inflation at the target level over the medium-term horizon as it monitors economic growth, while paying attention to financial stability, he added.

The governor noted the the impact of high debt on households was concerning, noting housing-related loans continued to increase. “Risks associated with real-estate project financing have increased,” he added.

2024 OUTLOOK

The Bank noted domestic inflation will continue to slow, but the pace will moderate due to the effects of accumulated cost pressures. "CPI is likely to fluctuate at around 3% for some time and then gradually decrease,” the BOK cautioned, noting price rises will generally fall in line with the November forecast of 2.6% for the year.

South Korea’s consumer price index rose 3.2% y/y in December, slowing from November’s 3.3%, while core CPI rose 4.0% y/y. The BOK recently lowered its 2024 growth forecast to 2.1% from August’s 2.2%, but raised its inflation view to 2.6% from 2.4%.

The Bank expects the domestic economy to continue the improvement noted since the second half of 2023 and it expects 2024 GDP growth to be generally consistent with the November forecast.