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MNI Brazil Central Bank Preview – March 2023

BRAZIL
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  • All surveyed analysts expect the BCB to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75%.
  • Developments since the February meeting provide a challenging backdrop for the committee. Inflation expectations have continued to deteriorate and combining this with the lack of details surrounding the new fiscal framework, the Copom remains fully justified in maintaining its restrictive monetary stance.
  • However, the partial reinstatement of taxes on fuels, below expectation growth and a worsening credit outlook, alongside the constant verbal rhetoric from the administration regarding the need for lower interest rates all indicate that a dovish pivot may be on the horizon.
  • Full preview with analyst views here.
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  • All surveyed analysts expect the BCB to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75%.
  • Developments since the February meeting provide a challenging backdrop for the committee. Inflation expectations have continued to deteriorate and combining this with the lack of details surrounding the new fiscal framework, the Copom remains fully justified in maintaining its restrictive monetary stance.
  • However, the partial reinstatement of taxes on fuels, below expectation growth and a worsening credit outlook, alongside the constant verbal rhetoric from the administration regarding the need for lower interest rates all indicate that a dovish pivot may be on the horizon.
  • Full preview with analyst views here.