MNI BRIEF: 3-Yr Inflation Expectations Drop To Series Low -Fed
NY Fed survey shows consumers expect delinquencies to trend higher.
The New York Fed's median measure of three-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations declined sharply by 0.6ppts in July to 2.33%, a series low since the survey began in June 2013.
Median one-year expectations eased half a tenth in July to 2.97% and five-year-ahead expectations were relatively unchanged at 2.81%. Median home price growth expectations was unchanged at 3.0% in July, the Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday showed. (See MNI INTERVIEW: Fed To Cut Gradually If Growth Solid - Giannoni)
Delinquency expectations continued their upward trend in July and have risen to the highest level since April 2020. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3% and the increase was most pronounced for those with an annual income below USD50,000 and those without a high school degree.
Source: New York Fed