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MNI BRIEF: Aussie Budget Sees Net Debt At AUD1.16tln By '25/26

MNI (PERTH)
MNI (Perth)

Australia's Treasury forecasts that net debt will grow to AUD1.16 trillion by 2025-26 and cost cumulative net interest payments of AUD76.1 billion over that period, according to Budget papers released Tuesday.

Despite revenue being revised up by AUD58.7 billion in 2022-23 and AUD157.7 billion over the four years to 2025-26, the Budget forecasts a cumulative AUD181.8 billion in deficits out to 2025-26 amid rising costs for the National Disability Insurance Scheme, increased defence spending and higher interest costs on government borrowing. Gross debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to climb from 37.3% in 2022-23 to 43.1% in 2025-2026, with a longer term projection of 46.9% in 2032-33.

Other macro forecasts see annual inflation expected to peak at around 7.75% in the December quarter of 2022. Inflation is forecast to be 5.75% in June 2023 before falling to 3.5% in the June 2024. Inflation eases to 2.5 per cent, within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band, in 2024–25. The cash rate is assumed to peak at 3.35% in the first half of 2023.

The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 3.75% by the June quarter 2023 and then 4.5 per cent by the June quarter 2024. The unemployment rate in September was 3.5%.

Robert covers RBA and RBNZ policy and the economy for MNI in Australia.
Robert covers RBA and RBNZ policy and the economy for MNI in Australia.

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