Free Trial

MNI BRIEF: BOI Sees 2% '23 GDP Contraction If Gas Imports Stop

(MNI) LONDON
(MNI) Rome

The Bank of Italy sees a GDP contraction of almost 2% in 2023 in its adverse scenario outlook, assuming a halt in Russian energy imports that will trigger some production interruption in manufacturing, the central banks' economic bulletin noted Friday.

This scenario would see growth dip below 1% this year -- more than 2.2 percentage points lower than the current baseline scenario. Inflation would jump to 9.3% in 2022, the report suggests, falling to around 7.4% in 2023 and only dipping to 2% in 2024.

In the baseline scenario, assuming the war in Ukraine continues throughout 2022, growth this year will be at 3.2% -- 0.3% higher than outlined by the European Commission in its summer forecasts published Thursday. This will slow to 1.3% next year and 1.7% in 2024. Inflation will be at 7.8% this year, 4% in 2023, again returning to 2% in 2024.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
True
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
True

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.