- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- Data
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Fed Model Sees April Jobs Slowdown Risk
U.S. employers added between 618,000 and 1.3 million jobs in April, according to a St. Louis Fed model using high frequency data from scheduling software companies Kronos and Homebase. That falls short of the 843,000 to 1.67 million range forecast by the regional Fed bank's model last month. Actual payroll employment rose by 916,000 in March, according to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Data from Kronos, which reflects the lower end of the forecast, has been "relatively flat" over the past few weeks, likely influenced by spring break in some parts of the country, St. Louis Fed economist Max Dvorkin told MNI in an email. The data saw a "positive jump" last week, he said, though that's outside of the BLS' survey week and won't be visible in official statistics.
Dvorkin cautioned that the Homebase data, used to calculate the forecast's upper end, "overpredicted the effective change in employment," last month by a larger margin than the Kronos data. Still, Dvorkin's coincident indices have forecast official jobs numbers from the BLS reasonably well through the pandemic.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Why Subscribe to
MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.