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MNI BRIEF: Fed Model Sees Substantial Decline in Sept Hiring

(MNI) WASHINGTON

St. Louis Fed's real time employment model, based on Homebase data, shows downward trend in employment.

U.S. employment may have declined substantially in September, according to a St. Louis Fed analysis of real-time data from employee scheduling software provider Homebase, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.

The St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index is showing a downward trend in the past few weeks, "which suggests a substantial decline in employment," Dvorkin said. Negative seasonality factors further drag down the -732,000 unadjusted figure to -913,000, a "very substantial" drop in employment for September. The figures correspond to the BLS's household survey.

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U.S. employment may have declined substantially in September, according to a St. Louis Fed analysis of real-time data from employee scheduling software provider Homebase, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.

The St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index is showing a downward trend in the past few weeks, "which suggests a substantial decline in employment," Dvorkin said. Negative seasonality factors further drag down the -732,000 unadjusted figure to -913,000, a "very substantial" drop in employment for September. The figures correspond to the BLS's household survey.

Keep reading...Show less