Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
U.S. employment may have declined substantially in September, according to a St. Louis Fed analysis of real-time data from employee scheduling software provider Homebase, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
The St. Louis Fed's Coincident Employment Index is showing a downward trend in the past few weeks, "which suggests a substantial decline in employment," Dvorkin said. Negative seasonality factors further drag down the -732,000 unadjusted figure to -913,000, a "very substantial" drop in employment for September. The figures correspond to the BLS's household survey.
He cautioned however that the Homebase sample has a high concentration of small firms in retail and leisure and hospitality and that composition bias may skew the forecast too negative. Real-time data from UKG, a different payroll and time-scheduling company, shows declines in these sectors and in small firms this month, but not so much in others, he said.
Markets are expecting Friday's jobs report to show U.S. payroll gains slowing to 250,000 from 315,000 a month earlier, based on the BLS establishment survey. The Fed is keen to see signs that the overheated labor market is starting to cool off, but has signaled it would only reduce the pace of interest rate increases if inflation slows.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.