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MNI BRIEF: Forecasters Up Price Expectations Again -ECB Survey

(MNI) LONDON

Professional forecasters have again upped their expectations for euro area inflation for each of the 3 year horizons, now seeing inflation average 2.4% over 2024, up from 2.1% in the July quarterly survey. Over 2023, the forecast now stands at 5.8%, a full 1.2% above the previous quarters outlook.

Inflation expectations for the 2022, 2023 and 2024 horizons now stand at 8.3%, 5.8% and 2.4% respectively;1.0, 1.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher compared with the previous survey round. According to the survey, upward revisions primarily reflect "a combination of higher (non-oil) energy and food prices as well as their pass-through to other prices and higher forecast wage growth. Longer-term inflation expectations (for 2027) stood unchanged at 2.2% on average."

The ECB, already 200bps into a tightening cycle) closely watches the SPF outcomes and, with no signs of a let up in the inflation outlook, the survey suggests further tightening is still ahead for the Frankfurt policymakers. (MNI ECB WATCH: ECB Hikes 75bp, Changes TLTRO Terms)

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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