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MNI BRIEF: FY25 Core CPI +1.6%, 2% May Come Into Sight
The Bank of Japan board predicted it will not achieve its 2% price target out to March 2026 but the 2% price stability target in fiscal 2025 may be possible as early as October, the Outlook Report released by the BOJ showed on Friday.
The board’s median forecast for the core consumer price index in fiscal 2025 was unrevised from April’s 1.6%, still below the 2% target, reflecting the low confidence among policymakers of a strengthening virtuous cycle. However, the BOJ may revise up its view as early as October, depending on economic and price developments.
The board’s median inflation forecasts in fiscal 2024 and 2023 were revised to 1.9% and 2.5% from April’s 2.0% and 1.8%. “Risks to prices are skewed to the upside for fiscal 2023 and 2024,” the BOJ noted. The median forecast for real economic growth this fiscal year was revised down to 1.3% from 1.4% and the growth forecast in fiscal 2024 was unrevised at 1.2%. The economic growth forecast in fiscal 2025 was also unrevised at 1.0%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.