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MNI BRIEF: FY25 Core CPI +1.6%, 2% May Come Into Sight

(MNI) Tokyo
(MNI) TOKYO

The Bank of Japan board predicted it will not achieve its 2% price target out to March 2026 but the 2% price stability target in fiscal 2025 may be possible as early as October, the Outlook Report released by the BOJ showed on Friday.

The board’s median forecast for the core consumer price index in fiscal 2025 was unrevised from April’s 1.6%, still below the 2% target, reflecting the low confidence among policymakers of a strengthening virtuous cycle. However, the BOJ may revise up its view as early as October, depending on economic and price developments.

The board’s median inflation forecasts in fiscal 2024 and 2023 were revised to 1.9% and 2.5% from April’s 2.0% and 1.8%. “Risks to prices are skewed to the upside for fiscal 2023 and 2024,” the BOJ noted. The median forecast for real economic growth this fiscal year was revised down to 1.3% from 1.4% and the growth forecast in fiscal 2024 was unrevised at 1.2%. The economic growth forecast in fiscal 2025 was also unrevised at 1.0%.

MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 | hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
MNI Tokyo Bureau | +81 90-2175-0040 | hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

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