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U.S. inflation expectations fell across the board in November, according to the New York Fed's survey of consumers, with short, medium, and longer term readings all showing decreases.
Median inflation expectations for the year-ahead fell 0.7ppt to 5.2%, the three-year-ahead decreased 0.1ppt to 3.0%, and the five-year-ahead edged down 0.1ppt to 2.3%, the New York Fed said. Expectations about home price growth dropped 1 ppt to 1.0%, the lowest reading since May 2020, while median year-ahead expectations for gas prices declined 0.6ppts to 4.75, food declined 0.8ppts to 8.3%, and rent declined 0.1ppt. The Fed is considering driving the fed funds rate to about 5% in the first half of 2023.
Labor market expectations strengthened, and household income growth expectations increased to a new series high, the NY Fed's November survey showed. The University of Michigan's preliminary December Survey of Consumers report released Friday showed the median one-year-ahead inflation expectation dropping to the lowest reading in 15 months, falling 0.3ppt to 4.6%.
Source: New York Fed
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.